WASHINGTON: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 41-37 in a new national poll released on Thursday, but the data beneath the relatively narrow margin shows a wide chasm between their supporters on how they view the US and its (and their) future. The survey provides a snapshot of a seminal moment in the country’s history when old white America is being eclipsed by an ethos and people who embrace multiculturalism and plurality.
The Pew Research Survey finds that Trump supporters overwhelmingly believe that life in America is worse than it was 50 years ago “for people like them”. Fully 81% of registered voters who support Trump say life has gotten worse, compared with just 11% who say it has gotten better (6% say it is about the same).
In contrast, 59% of Hillary Clinton supporters say life for people like them has gotten better over the past half-century, 19% think it has gotten worse and 18% see little change.
In the same vein, Trump supporters see a bleak future — 68% say life for the next generation will be worse than today. In contrast, only 30% of Clinton supporters say it will be worse. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) say life will be better and 28% say it will be the same.
Clinton and Trump supporters are also far apart in their perceptions of some of the major problems facing the country. About two-thirds of Trump backers cite immigration (66%) and terrorism (65%) as “very big” problems in the United States. Among Clinton supporters, just 17% say immigration is a very big problem and 36% view terrorism as a major problem.
Among Clinton supporters, 70% say the gap between the rich and poor is a very big problem. Among Trump supporters, just 31% cite this as a major problem. Clinton supporters are more than twice as likely as Trump backers to view the condition of the environment as a very big problem for the country (43% vs 16%).
The survey shows that Trump’s core support comes from older white less-educated Christian males. Clinton has greater support among the younger and the more educated. She has greater backing from women, from non-whites and minorities, from religiously non-affiliated voters.
Breaking it up, one sees a sizable gender gap in vote preferences: Women favor Clinton over Trump by 19 points (49% to 30%), while men back Trump by a 12-point margin (45% to 33%). Education makes a big difference: voters with postgraduate degrees favor Clinton by a wide margin (59% vs 21%). College graduates also favor Clinton (47% vs 34%). As education level dips (only some college or less), Trump surfaces with 41 % to Clinton’s 36%.
When race is thrown into lack of education, Trump does really well. White voters without a college degree support Trump by roughly two-to-one (51% vs 26%). By a smaller margin, college-educated white voters support Clinton (47%) over Trump (33%).
Throw in majority religion, and Trump does even better. White evangelical Protestants support Trump over Clinton (63% vs 17%). Religiously unaffiliated voters back Clinton over Trump 56% vs 19%.
A majority of Trump supporters (57%) favour greater scrutiny of Muslims, while 37% oppose this policy. Among Clinton supporters, 82% opposed subjecting Muslims living in the US to extra scrutiny.
Trump supporters gave free trade a thumbs down by a 68-28 margin, while Clinton supporters give it a thumbs up by a 59-32 margin. This is significant shift from the time before Donald Trump’s candidature when Republican voters by a 51-39 margin said free trade is a good thing.