Why Modi’s new '30-day' prison bill is about politics, not justice

Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to have both pragmatism and principle on his side when he argued recently that ministers, including the chief ministers who led state governments, should be required to resign if they spend more than 30 days in prison. “How can anyone run a government from jail?” he asked at an election rally in Bihar.Unfortunately, things aren’t quite that simple. The constitutional amendments proposed by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could, if they pass, be used to harass and dethrone ministers from opposition parties. And given that the BJP doesn’t have the numbers to force their passage, it’s more likely that the proposal’s real purpose is to remind voters of Modi’s own image of incorruptibility. The ruling party would love for the national discussion to return to corruption — Modi’s promises to eliminate graft helped elevate him to national office in 2014. It might be particularly helpful in Bihar, where voters will choose between his alliance and an opposition led by Tejashwi Yadav, whose father, former chief minister Lalu Prasad, has been in and out of jail for more than a decade.Yadav himself pointed out that it isn’t just his family that’s in the bill’s crosshairs — so are the BJP’s allies. In last year’s general elections, Modi lost his majority in Parliament, and is now dependent on support from allies such as N Chandrababu Naidu, chief minister of Andhra Pradesh. Naidu spent 53 days in jail in 2023; the new law would force him to stay loyal to the BJP, according to Yadav.There’s broad agreement that those actually convicted of serious crimes shouldn’t stay in office. But the problem is that corruption cases take inordinately long to prosecute, even by the glacial standards of the Indian judicial system. Yadav’s father was convicted 17 years after he was first indicted.Simple accusations are enough to go to jail for weeks, months or years, as bail is rarely granted in a timely fashion. The firebrand opposition leader Arvind Kejriwal, who was then chief minister of Delhi, spent five months awaiting bail after his corruption-related arrest in 2024. He was only released from police custody when the Supreme Court intervened. (Kejriwal denies the charges and says they’re politically motivated.)It’s easy to see, therefore, how the system could be used to control and bully the opposition. The federal government controls multiple investigative agencies, all of which have the power to accuse and arrest opposition ministers. A creaking legal system then fails to examine their bail petitions in time, leading to them spending 30 days in jail and potentially being turfed out of office before any evidence can be sent to trial. The government says that the police are just doing their job. But that’s a hard argument to make when the numbers are so lopsided. The Indian Express pointed out last year that of 25 prominent politicians in legal trouble who defected to the government benches, 23 had charges against them buried; and that, in the first eight years of Modi’s tenure, 95% of the cases filed by the government’s investigators were against members of the opposition.When asked about these numbers, Modi insisted that “not one case has been dropped”, and stressed the independence of the courts. He may be correct in saying that justice will eventually be done. But what of the interim, especially given trials stretch on for years? The electorate will feel disenfranchised, and the BJP itself might not benefit. Voters trust in Modi’s own incorruptibility does not extend to every member of his party. They may have begun to worry that the surest way for a politician to have corruption allegations dropped is joining the BJP.In any democratic system, disqualification or removal from office should not be too easy. It can lead to voters becoming dangerously alienated – and, as episodes in France and Romania show, the convicted politician’s popularity might pass swiftly to their successors. But it’s particularly dangerous in places where prosecutorial authorities or the police aren’t seen as being independent. The BJP’s constitutional gamble is unlikely to pass. But, if it does, it would seriously damage faith in India’s democracy.Also read: Rule of law or rule by law — what does India want?