Shinde Vs Uddhav: Wait For Next Episode

Does the Maharashtra assembly election result mean that Shinde Sena has successfully claimed control of the nativist Hindutva space and Bal Thackeray’s legacy? While there is no easy answer to this question, it is clear that Uddhav Sena’s grip over the sub-regional Hindutva space has considerably eroded.Uddhav did well by invoking the legacy of his grandfather Prabodhankar’s non-Brahmin movement. He also sought to distinguish his Hindutva from BJP’s Brahmanical Hindutva. However, it appears that he failed to take his variety of Hindutva to the masses. Uddhav’s inaccessibility to party cadre in general and his management style worked against him.On the other hand, Shinde has demonstrated that he is a powerful contender for nativist Hindutva. While he also relies on BJP’s Hindutva, he is known for being the most accessible politician. MNS’s Raj Thackeray has minimal appeal, but his politics too relies heavily on furthering Balasaheb’s Hindutva legacy. Not to be outdone, BJP claims to uphold Balasaheb’s legacy as well. Given that Shinde, Uddhav and Raj’s politics all revolve around Balasaheb’s legacy, expect to witness continued contestations over the nativist Hindutva space.Mahayuti’s astounding victory has puzzled several commentators. BJP emerging as the single largest party, and its allies, Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, also performing exceptionally well are a complete reversal of LS polls. In particular, what is noteworthy is that Shinde Sena outperformed Uddhav Sena. It is now clear that the discourse that enabled MVA to claim a big victory during LS polls did not work in Vidhan Sabha elections.The same factors that worked for UBT and allies in LS polls turned counterproductive in several cases as Mahayuti used them to consolidate its own vote bank. An overwhelming consolidation of Muslims in favour of MVA was effectively used to consolidate Hindu voters by Mahayuti. In particular, Uddhav was targeted for patronising Muslims, and he was termed Muslim Hriday Samrat (King of Muslim Hearts) to delegitimise his claim over the Hindutva agenda. Uddhav and his party failed to counter this campaign, such as by arguing that he also received support from Hindu and Neo-Buddhist voters. By contrast, Shinde effectively countered the traitor narrative by claiming that his Sena members were rebels and authentic followers of Balasaheb Thackeray’s Hindutva legacy. UBT’s reliance on the traitor campaign against Shinde has lost its appeal by now. Meanwhile, BJP used narratives such as ‘katenge toh batenge’ and ‘ek hai toh safe hai’ explicitly. Cleverly, Shinde Sena sometimes distanced themselves from such comments, but upheld the Hindutva agenda.Plus, the Manoj Jarange Patil factor, which helped Uddhav Sena and MVA in LS elections, also lost its influence among Maratha voters. More importantly, this helped Mahayuti to consolidate the OBC vote bank. While UBT benefitted from Neo-Buddhist votes, lack of representation of the community in Vidhan Sabha elections meant a split towards other political parties.After LS polls, Mahayuti knew merely evoking the Hindutva agenda wouldn’t enable it to win assembly elections. It hastily and aggressively implemented populist schemes such as Ladki Bahin Yojna. UBT, together with alliance partners, raised questions about the long-term tenability of these schemes. But then, including similar schemes in MVA manifestos only provided legitimacy to Mahayuti’s populism. Moreover, UBT and allies did not offer new hope to their voters. At the same time, the latest polls clearly show that put together, UBT and Shinde Sena are still a formidable force in Maharashtra politics. BJP, the bigger partner now, and despite its control over finance and other mechanisms, will still always have to ally with a party that can stake claim over the nativist Hindutva ideology.We’re back in the peculiar situation where we have a Sena led by Shinde in govt and a whittled Sena led by Uddhav in opposition. Will both use similar tactics by demonstrating their strength through street power projections and war of words? They’ll have to be extremely creative in opposing each other, and at the same time laying claim to Balasaheb’s legacy.The writer is a labour sociology professor