How Neo-Buddhists & Muslims Vote

One striking trend in 2024’s LS elections in Maharashtra was the voting of neo-Buddhist Dalits and Muslims in favour of MVA (UBT Sena, Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP). Both these groups have historically voted against Shiv Sena. This time, their vote helped MVA win 30 of 48 LS seats. Whether MVA managed to hold these votes on Wednesday is central to it repeating its LS feat.From late 1990s onwards, Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray made efforts to make inroads among neo-Buddhist Dalits by calling for an alliance between Shiv Shakti (Shiv Sainiks) and Bhim Shakti (Ambedkarites). In recent years, Uddhav has evoked his grandfather Prabodhankar’s non-Brahmin movement’s legacy to distinguish his Hindutva from BJP’s. Prabodhankar allied with Ambedkar on several social questions.Uddhav evoked this legacy to ally with Prakash Ambedkar’s VBA. It lasted briefly. Uddhav inducted veterans such as Sushma Andhare, associated with the anti-caste movement, into Sena leadership. Andhare, of an OBC community, has strong ties with neo-Buddhist Dalit communities.Congress has received neo-Buddhist Dalits’ support in the past. However the change in Congress’s national leadership under Mallikarjun Kharge brought new hope to Maharashtra’s Buddhist Dalits, bringing them much closer to the party. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra played its part, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP, too, has benefitted from neo-Buddhist votes in the past.It was neo-Buddhists who had pressured Prakash Ambedkar to join MVA ahead of LS polls, but the latter chose to contest independently – only to suffer major losses. VBA has used memories of anti-Dalit riots of 1970s and SC reservation subclassification to try and win back neo-Buddhist Dalits from MVA.BJP has intervened among neo-Buddhist Dalit voters through BJP’s minority affairs minister, Kiren Rijiju, a Buddhist from Arunachal but, it’s unlikely to produce a favourable outcome. Further, Fadnavis’s statement linking the Constitution to Naxals damaged the party’s cause.Muslims have historically supported Congress and NCP. But in a major surprise, Muslims supported UBT Sena candidates in large numbers in LS polls. Mahayuti has used this to target UBT Sena – alleging it compromised on Bal Thackeray’s Hindutva. To consolidate its Hindu vote bank, Mahayuti criticised Uddhav’s opposition to the Waqf Amendment Bill.Unlike during LS elections, Shinde has now defended his defection by calling it a rebellion against Uddhav’s compromising approach with Balasaheb’s Hindutva and anti-development stance. While Shinde’s defence has received little traction among voters, Uddhav has successfully deployed the language of traitors to delegitimise Shinde Sena.Mahayuti sought to control the LS damage by hastily implementing direct cash transfer schemes and removing Mumbai’s toll plazas. Questions within Mahayuti about tenability of these schemes meant their impact on voting remains uncertain. Going into polls, MVA had an edge, but the smaller size of assembly seats and hyperlocal factors have all played an equal role.LS polls showed BJP’s real problem in Maharashtra. Without invoking Bal Thackeray’s name, there is no Hindutva in the state. Shinde Sena’s claim as the keeper of Balasaheb’s ideology saw it strike better returns on seats contested than BJP. Whether in the months since, BJP managed to fashion a state-level Hindutva-nativist narrative that voters endorse will be known on Saturday.The writer is a labour sociology professor