Will Gor’s nomination stabilise Indo-US ties or make matters worse?

Donald Trump’s nomination of Sergio Gor, a close confidant and powerful MAGA loyalist, as ambassador to India contains within it a world of possibilities, and problems, depending on what both sides choose as focus of the relationship going forward.Trump’s focus was clear: Gor is “to fully deliver on my agenda”. POTUS said nothing positive about India or importance of the bilateral relationship or the Indo-Pacific, except to describe the country as “the most populous region in the world”. One could read a million MAGA warnings right there about immigration and visas.Naming someone who is personally close to him and not “a throwaway” is still a good signal, according to an old-style Republican. It’s true that Trump would write the script, direct the show and the 38-year-old Gor would merely execute. It also means the state department’s role in setting policy might be further reduced.Since whatever message Gor brings will come straight from Trump, the two governments will have an opportunity to address the dissonance and figure out a way to stabilise relations. Restoring trust may take years. Before the ambassador gets in position, there’s still a need for a credible back channel to explore terms of a package deal that covers key ‘asks’ and red lines before the front channel starts working.As an observer said, “You can’t ignore Trump. Better to take everything head on and bring closure. Because if you can’t manage the US relationship, how will you manage China?” Painfully true. India faces a total of 50% tariffs if Trump goes through with an additional 25% on August 27 as punishment for buying Russian oil. With China, the list of problems is longer, issues harder and distrust deeper.It’s true that relentless attacks from Trump officials have forced New Delhi to publicly signal it has other friends, even if the recent meetings and travel to Russia and China were already planned as external affairs minister S Jaishankar noted at the ET World Leaders Forum on August 23. If they served a higher purpose of rebooting ties all around, so much the better. But no one would have missed Wang Yi’s itinerary. After New Delhi, he went to Kabul and Islamabad for the real trilateral.No one should miss that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Japan, an important development partner and Quad member, before he goes to China for the Tianjin SCO summit next week, his first visit in seven years. The geopolitical chessboard is complicated.But Gor’s mandate poses a problem. Not only was he named as ambassador, he will also be “special envoy for South and Central Asian affairs”. The double assignment has raised eyebrows in New Delhi, because Gor would oversee Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries bordering China. medium nocaptionhttps://youtu.be/edYFf7OO9rk?si=qONSF_fXCYMgrz_mDoes an expanded portfolio mean a push for mediation on Kashmir given Trump’s embrace of Pakistan, or is it simply a matter of sending a trusted aide to oversee a larger arena for dealmaking? Trump’s billionaire ambassador to Türkiye, Tom Barrack, roams the wider region scouting for lucrative deals. Is it ‘hyphenation’ by another name or an effort at coordination to exploit resources in the region?Hyphenation can be in the eye of the beholder. Notice the amount of energy spent by Indian politicians on Pakistan. “This Pakistan business has doomed our fate. A trade deal with the US is important for our small businesses,” an official lamented. Hope someone is listening through the cloud of defiance, anger and perpetual preoccupation with the next state election.Gor’s Senate confirmation hearing should clarify the picture. But it may be weeks before it takes place, depending on how fast his paperwork is done, security and financial vetting completed, and whether a hearing can be scheduled before the Senate goes for its October break.But what is Gor really about? He has an interesting résumé — he’s been a DJ and book publisher. He’s been described as affable, but also ruthless. Most importantly, he is a ‘total’ Trump insider. “You can’t be any more inside than him,” a Republican observer told me. How did he get there? Like Stephen Miller, White House czar on immigration policy, and FBI director Kash Patel, Gor stuck by Trump during the ‘exile’ — the time between losing and winning again. It was loyalty with a capital L. The family noticed.Gor is very close to Don Jr, master key to this administration, and other family members. He is also close to India’s current bête noire Peter Navarro, trade adviser and fountain of sharp rhetoric. Gor and Don Jr visited Navarro in jail last year when the latter was serving a four-month sentence for contempt after refusing to testify before a Congressional panel investigating the January 6, 2021, insurrection.Gor can also be brutal when it comes to enforcing the writ. Elon Musk called him “a snake” after Gor persuaded Trump to reject Musk’s nominee for Nasa administrator because the candidate had made donations to Democrats. His current job as director of the White House personnel office makes him one of the most powerful players. He decides who is loyal and worthy of a political appointment, and who isn’t.India, meanwhile, hired another firm of lobbyists on August 15 in an effort to reach the Trump inner circle. Mercury Public Affairs will work in addition to SHW Partners led by Jason Miller, a former Trump campaign adviser, and the BGR Group that has dealt with the India account for two decades and delivered. But can the relationship be fixed at this stage by lobbyists in the absence of a deal? Um, not really.