US presidential election: Will Nov 5 be worse than Jan 6?

Columnist based in OhioNov 5 may be the next ‘Jan 6’ if Trump supporters carry out their plans to impede voting in Democratic strongholds, especially in battleground states, on election day. On that infamous day in 2021 a violent mob stormed the US Capitol to disrupt the counting of electoral college votes that would certify Biden’s presidential win over Trump. The persistence of Trump’s Big Lie about the last election – and disinformation about voter fraud – has this time led many of his supporters to disturb early voting and plan to sow disorder on election day itself.Trump’s baseless allegations that the 2020 election was somehow “rigged” against him have fuelled conspiracy narratives such as the 2022 film 2000 Mules. It argued, without any reasonable evidence, that Democrat-supported couriers (that is to say, ‘mules’ – like ‘drug mules’) collected and distributed illegal ballots in swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.The claims made in the film have been extensively repudiated by an array of groups, including those in law enforcement. The conservative Salem Media Group, which published and distributed 2000 Mules, withdrew copies of both the film and book version earlier this year, after a defamation suit was filed by a Georgia man who was falsely accused in the film of being involved in the alleged fraudulent scheme. Despite being widely discredited, unsubstantiated claims in the film seem to have indelibly spread misbeliefs about the integrity of early voting and election polling. Just this week, early voting ballot drop-off boxes were destroyed by “incendiary devices” in Portland, Oregon, and a box in Vancouver, Washington was also set on fire. Violent sabotage of votes cast in Democratic areas has furthered concerns about the safety of election workers, as well as voters and the votes they intend to cast on Nov 5. A study by the Brennan Centre for Justice showed that 38% of election workers had reported being threatened, harassed or abused in the aftermath of the 2020 election. More recently, several poll workers took to X to condemn Republican Ohio Senator and VP candidate JD Vance for his comment on the social media platform that a person harassing a poll worker was “a patriot”.Such attacks against poll workers have escalated since Rudy Giuliani (while working as part of Trump’s legal team) falsely accused Georgia election workers of manipulating voting machines and smuggling in illegal ballots on election night. Two of the workers identified by Giuliani were targeted with a litany of racist voicemails and violent threats, but successfully sued the former New York mayor for defamation. Even after this $148mn lawsuit has cost him nearly all his property and personal assets, as well as disbarment, fears of further attacks on poll workers remain.When elected officials like Vance appear to endorse such behaviour, or former elected administrators like Giuliani make such staggeringly reckless allegations without any evidence, it is even worse for election workers.And now, the Republican party leadership in North Carolina is encouraging party-based poll watchers to be aggressive in challenging what they consider to be nefarious activity and spot illegal immigrants trying to vote. RNC is organising similar “watchdogs” in Michigan.Of course, the idea that illegal immigrants could even attempt to vote is incredible, as they would be ineligible to even register to vote and there is no evidence that they are somehow being registered illegally. Yet, another part of the Big Lie is that Biden (and now Kamala Harris) and other Democrats are allowing illegal migrants coming through the US southern border to vote.Another conspiracy theory put forth by Trump’s election deniers is that people (namely Democrats) are voting more than once using a mail-in ballot, as well as voting in person on election day. Again, this scenario is highly improbable because mail-in voters must make a documented request for a mail-in ballot, and that info is available in databases at polling sites. If someone tried to vote in person, there is a record that they have already requested a mail-in ballot. In this case, the best a person could do on election day is to request a provisional ballot that would be set aside until it is verified whether a mail-in ballot was received.So, what is the real purpose of Republicans aggressively challenging so-called suspicious activity? In Wisconsin this summer, election workers complained about the high volume of poll watchers making meritless ballot challenges and disrupting on-site voting.While election officials are undertaking extra training that includes de-escalation tactics, evacuation procedures, and even the installation of panic buttons that would alert local law enforcement in case of an emergency, none of these plans can effectively control the ultimate impact of such disruptions.It seems the Republican plan for next week’s election is spreading fear and intimidation, to discourage voter turnout in Democratic leaning areas, especially in swing states. Polling data released this week shows a tight race that may be decided by a thin margin. Thwarting turnout and destroying votes in highly Democratic areas could tip the election towards Trump, or at least make the results close enough for his acolytes to challenge certification of the election. Trump has already hinted that he shares a “little secret” with House Republicans about the election. Speaker Mike Johnson has indicated that the secret is simply to get-out-the-vote for Republicans. But it’s more likely about diminishing Democratic voting, the democratic process, and democracy itself.The writer is professor, School of Public and International Affairs, University of Cincinnati