For Trump, there was no ‘Maduro effect’. There’s unlikely to be any ‘Khamenei effect’

Michael Wasiura
Mar 2, 2026 | 21:49 IST

Whether Iran is transformed into the Switzerland of West Asia (not bloody likely) or whether it finds itself engulfed in a Syria-like civil war (all too likely), Trump’s approval rating will almost certainly remain around 43%.

Political journalist based in Washington DC

On Jan 2, the day before American forces flew into Caracas, extracted Venezuelan head of state Nicolas Maduro, and delivered him to a jail in New York, Trump’s overall approval rating stood at 43.5%, and betting markets gave Republicans a 45% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election.

On Feb 27, the day before US and Israeli forces struck Iran, killing Khamenei, Trump’s overall approval rating was 43.1%, and betting markets gave Republicans a 44% chance of winning the 2028 election.
Copyright © 2024 Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd. All rights reserved. For reprint rights: Times Syndication Service.