Neelkanth Mishra
Oil Traders Expect A Short War
Both crude prices and futures indicate a belief that US will not allow Strait of Hormuz to be closed for long. That US politics will not allow a long conflict. And that Iran, despite aggressive retaliation from Revolutionary Guards, will run out of firepower before US & Israel do
Good it's boring? Or should she have gone for big bang?
Growth is high, inflation is low. Betting they will stay that way, FM chose to stress policy continuity. That can reassure business & investors. The other view? This is when you go for big reforms
No Russian Oil? Likely No Problem
Post-US/EU sanctions, energy markets aren’t panicking, there’s other supply & India’s macroeconomy can easily adjust
No Putin Oil? Bad News, For Trump
If India stops buying Russian energy, it won’t lose much because the price advantage per barrel vis-à-vis Brent is down to two dollars or so. But were India & China to stop buying from Russia, global oil prices will likely jump, hurting everyone, US consumers included
She had only so much to give, she gave it all to middle class. Now what?
Given the volatile environment globally, limitations in the fiscal space available to the central government can become a constraint on growth
Fed cut won’t run deep
Lower US rate by itself won’t fire up Indian stocks much. But RBI will have more elbow room
US recession? Good news for India
If Fed starts cutting rates, it will increase room for rate cuts here, which are necessary because our economy is still more than a year behind where it would have been if not for the pandemic