Country needs time to build up domestic capacities, till then reduce dependence on those ‘perfect’ imports
The project is geopolitical leverage for New Delhi. It fits into GOI’s smart transactional approach: invest in US, buy Russian oil, clear Chinese FDI, talk to Iran, be pals with Israel. Be guided by ROI, not emotion
It averts the possibility of job losses in labour-intensive export sectors. It addresses foreign investors’ psychological fear. What it doesn’t do is takeIndia’s exports to another level. That’ll require hard work
To cheer up investors, govt may be banking on two things: RBI cutting rates & easing liquidity, and India-US trade deal getting signed relatively soon
Domestic political calculations, not geopolitics, made US prez order Venezuelan ops. India, a major oil buyer, should think strategically, hope crude prices drop & stay low
Don’t worry about India’s currency. It’s part neutralising disadvantages of US tariffs. And because inflation & global oil prices are low, depreciation won’t have major domestic consequences
Prep begins for another round of govt wage hikes. But apart from top sarkari posts, govt salaries are far higher than those paid by pvt sector for comparable jobs. This distorts labour market & reduces govt capacity to employ more teachers, medics, municipal workers. India has fewer govt employees per lakh of people than US
India’s macroeconomic markers may be at levels deemed near-ideal presently, but there are indicators that show deep (and deepening) slowdown across the board. The Indian government needs to act.
With US & China weaponising every piece of trade, India can’t depend on them for mission-critical technologies & products. It must manufacture these itself & its private sector isn’t up to the task
It’s not just Trump’s Nato allies who are having to up the military spend. For India, such upping could counteract slowing growth. As long as the spending is domestic…and actual war doesn’t hit us
New Delhi has hit upon the best strategy vis-à-vis Islamabad: short, sharp military ops that buy long periods free of dramatic terror strikes & don’t disrupt the world’s fastest growing economy
New Delhi can make Islamabad pay by following BCCI’s approach. Use its bigger market. Take away Pak’s textile exports by reconfiguring the sector here. Or insert ‘not in/to Pakistan’ clauses in defence & FDI deals
His tariffs were meant to make other countries blink. But he himself blinked, twice. Only to promise another tariff yesterday. What now? Short answer: No one knows
Global order is changing, US pre-eminence is in decline. That’s why it’s demanding trade concessions. This approach suits New Delhi. If it’s clever, it can make a few geopolitical deals
Short-term point: consumption’s economic multiplier effect lower than capex’s. Long-term point: smaller income taxpayer base means GST rates will remain high, social contract between elite and govt will weaken
No nation in economic transition has workers achieving work-life balance. The kerfuffles over working Sundays or 90-hour weeks are but outpourings of an elite minority
We missed the bus during the Cold War when East Asia and China raced ahead. But in today’s flux we have another chance
Bangladesh to Sri Lanka, subcontinental dependencies already prove this. If bending geopolitics to our shape isn’t as visible elsewhere, it’s because we are still only at 20% of China’s GDP
Youth voters don’t react to unemployment because they’d rather wait for sarkari jobs
The city was a hub of intellectual excellence as long as it hosted a thriving business ecosystem. That’s a truth few Calcuttans are willing to admit
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