Polls in Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland: What results mean for BJP, Opposition parties

The election commission on Thursday announced results to Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland Assembly elections that were held last month. As counting of votes came to an end in the evening, the BJP and its allies were comfortably past the half-way mark in Tripura and Nagaland. In Meghalaya, the National People’s Party (NPP) emerged as the single largest party.For the BJP, results in three of the seven Northeast states were crucial. It was perceived that the results would highlight whether the saffron party will make inroads in the region or not. Why did the BJP not perform well in Meghalaya? In Meghalaya, BJP managed to win just one more seat than what it had last time.The outcome of the elections is interesting. Of the 59 seats, 44 have gone to regional parties, two to Independents, three to the BJP and five to the Congress. The rest has gone to Mamata Banerjee’s TMC.What might have gone against the BJP is the people’s faith in homegrown parties. Second, the BJP went overboard criticizing the NPP government, accusing it of massive corruption. Third, Meghalaya is a Christian majority state and it could be assumed that voters might not be ready yet to embrace the BJP completely. What has the BJP done in Nagaland and Tripura to retain its hold?Nagaland is also a Christian majority state. Here BJP played smart and safe. They contested in only 20 of the 60 seats. They had a popular party as its partner, the NDPP. In Nagaland too, the party has not improved its tally. Last time, they had 12 and they got the same number of seats this time as well. The reason could be delay in the Naga peace talks.In Tripura, BJP’s tally has come down by two. They were 35 last time, and 32 this time. They managed this despite an anti-incumbency undercurrent. Many say that the Opposition was not united.The striking feature in Tripura is the way the tribals voted. They voted overwhelmingly for the BJP in 2018, but they have almost discarded the party this time. Under the leadership of Maharaja Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma, the tribals are seeking a separate state. Riding on the newly-formed party TIPRA Motha, they have got 13 out of 20 seats. That is the game changer.Where are Congress and the Left now?Last time, the Left parties were shown the door. This time, they have slid further — from 16 to 11. So Left parties are probably going out of people’s minds. For Congress, it's one more defeat. If you go by statistics, from 2016 to 2023, there were 12 Assembly elections in the Northeast. In all these, the Congress has been routed. What about the women legislators that Nagaland got this time?Nagaland has got two women legislators for the first time since it became a full-fledged state in 1960. Every election, there were very few women candidates, so the chances of getting elected were also very low. This time there were only four women. 1977 was the last time Nagaland had a woman Parliamentarian in the Lok Sabha. After that, no woman has gone to Lok Sabha from Nagaland. Last year one woman was sent to the Rajya Sabha. It’s a historic beginning in Nagaland today. With Lok Sabha polls early next year, what are the takeaways from these three elections?Only Assam has 14 seats in the Lok Sabha. The rest have one or maximum two. Every Lok Sabha election, Northeast is counted as a block, with 24 seats. This is a big number when competition among the national parties is tough. The BJP has been trying to protect this Northeast block. They have done well in 2014 and 2019. So, 2024 will be a high-stake election for the BJP as far as the Northeast is concerned.Audio production: Anil Chauhan