Maoist attack in Chhattisgarh kills 10: Is it a comeback signal?

We take you to the heart of Bastar, in Chhattisgarh’s Dantewada district, where a powerful IED blast by Maoists killed 10 jawans of the District Reserve Guards and their civilian driver on April 26. Around 50 kilograms of explosives were used for the blast that left a gaping 12-ft crater across the village road. Around 200 jawans had been returning to their base after an operation in the afternoon when the attack took place. All this, soon after the Centre and the state’s assurances that there is a dip in Maoist activity.Did the attack happen to prove them otherwise? Is it an intelligence failure? Was it timed keeping the elections in mind? How can such attacks be pre-empted? To answer all these questions, we have with us Prasenjit Mund, the Resident Editor of The Times of India Bhopal. He has followed the Maoist insurgency for decades and provides a detailed perspective. Is this an intelligence failure? Is Maoist terror making a comeback?Prasenjit says this is very clearly a statement by the Maoists, especially since it comes soon after the central and state governments saying that Maoist insurgency is on the wane and the fight against Naxalism is in its final stages. There have been attacks by Maoists on and off in the past couple of years - there have been ambushes and one or two IED blasts. Last week, a jawan died and some four to five jawans were injured in a string of IED blasts. A couple of days ago, Maoists ambushed the convoy of a Congress MLA. In hindsight, it all looks like a build up to this massive ID attack, he says.It’s too early to say if Maoists are making a comeback because they have taken a beating in the past few years, but the timing of the attack is crucial. Summer is when Maoists run their so-called tactical counter-offensive campaigns, when they are under pressure to do something. It’s like their performance appraisal of sorts. And every unit has to do something spectacular. This Maoist attack has most likely been done by a unit called the Darbha unit, which has been involved in many of the earlier, very ghastly incidents. This unit has also taken a beating in the last couple of years, so this might have been a show of might, a statement to say we are still there. This area and this time of the year, these two things are crucial for the Maoists, since this is their stronghold and this is the time when they usually launch their big attacks.As far as intelligence failure is concerned, police have said that this route was sanitized and it was on the way back that they were attacked. It looks like the IED was planted after the road was sanitized. Prasenjit says this is a pattern seen in earlier attacks as well.It is when security forces are coming back from an operation, when their defences are probably down and all they want is to go back home, that is when these Maoists usually strike. That has been the steady pattern. Prasenjit says it looks like there was some kind of intel gap somewhere as well.Bhupesh Baghel and others carry the mortal remains of the DRG personnel who were killed in the Dantewada IED attackWas the attack timed keeping the Chhattisgarh assembly elections in mind? Anything that happens in election year gets amplified, quips Prasenjit, sharing a couple of incidents as examples. In 2018, about 10-12 days before the assembly elections, Maoists had shot dead a Doordarshan cameraman and four or five policemen. Maoists rarely attacked journalists and that incident created shockwaves around the country.In 2013, about six months ahead of the Assembly elections, the Maoists ambushed a convoy of Congress leaders who were coming back from campaigning. It was the Parivartan campaign. They wanted to oust the BJP government at that time, and they were ambushed in a place called Jhiram Ghati in Sukma, not far from where the recent attack happened. In that incident, 25 Congress leaders were killed, including Union Minister VC Shukla and a Congress leader called Mahendra Karma, who was instrumental in starting the Salva Judum movement. The repercussions of that massacre are still being felt today, he asserts. As for this attack, the opposition is already cornering the government for an explanation, and a blame game has already ensued. So, if the Maoists wanted some kind of a buzz to be created ahead of the elections, they have done it.What’s the new anti-Maoist policy cleared by state cabinet and CM last month?Prasenjit says Chhattisgarh is using a two-pronged strategy to tackle the Maoist menace. One is to increase development activities in Maoist-hit areas. Bastar is a massive place, it’s bigger than Kerala and it is a deeply forested region. There are no roads to many places, so the reach of developmental activities like schools and hospitals is very low. But in the past five-six years, there has been very clear directives that there should be roads, there should be schools and there should be hospitals in these areas. And it seems to be working. If the youth have other avenues like going to work or to study, then it is seen that they don’t join the Maoists. The more roads are being created, the easier it is getting for troops to reach a place quickly and the Maoist influence is waning. The second strategy is a very aggressive campaign by the forces to hit the Maoists in their old strongholds. The Maoists are being hit at places where they used to feel the most secure. This has come about because of better training. A counter counter insurgency and jungle warfare school is being run by a retired army man, and select police and paramilitary personnel are training there to fight the Maoists on their terrain. It's seen as one of the toughest military schools in the world, and it teaches you to fight the guerrilla like a guerrilla.They have recruited from among the tribals in Bastar. The District Reserve Guards Battalion hit in the recent attack comprised mostly tribals, many of who are surrendered Maoists. So, they know how Maoists operate, how Maoists think. They have been spreading the fight against Maoists in Bastar and are very often the target for that reason. At least half of those killed were surrendered Maoists, says Prasenjit.But this two-pronged strategy of having development activities and aggressive military tactics is pushing the Maoists back and that seems to be working, which is why the Maoists are lashing out from time to time. Their pockets of influence have dwindled considerably. What measures are needed to preempt such attacks?The nature of guerrilla warfare is that everyone bleeds, shares Prasenjit. And it is almost impossible to predict where and when the next attack may happen. But there are some standard operating procedures that can be followed, some patterns that need to be studied, the roads have to be sanitized. It is very difficult owing to Bastar’s expanse. Many areas are inaccessible, but such attacks cannot keep happening. It's very important that when routes are fixed, they are sanitized. Also, when there is intelligence input about an attack, it has to be taken seriously. In the 2021 Burkapal attack, there were intelligence inputs from IB that something big was going to happen and it seems that those warnings were ignored, he says.Prasenjit adds that it’s important to keep the forces’ morale up in these kinds of situations when there has been an attack. They need to be equipped better, trained better. They need to have gadgets that can detect IEDs buried under the road, and there needs to be better surveillance. But he believes that the most important thing is to keep development initiatives going alongside aggressive military campaigns.Audio production: Shantanu Nanoti