Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh Assembly polls: What to expect

Election fever is catching up. The Election Commission of India on Monday announced schedule for the Legislative Assembly elections in five states — Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana. The elections will begin on November 7 in Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. Madhya Pradesh will go to polls on November 17. And elections in Rajasthan and Telangana will happen on November 23 and 30 respectively. Chhattisgarh is the only state that will witness a two-phase election, that’s on November 7 and 17. What are the key election issues in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh?The two states are very important in terms of elections before the Lok Sabha polls. Chhattisgarh is carved out of Madhya Pradesh and the two states have a shared history. But in terms of electoral issues and scenarios, they are very different.Madhya PradeshHere, anti-incumbency is a big factor, perhaps bigger than what it was in 2018 when the state ended up with a hung assembly, and Congress edged out BJP and formed a short-lived government. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is said to have helped the state shed its BIMARU tag. Under his rule, Madhya Pradesh became an agricultural powerhouse. It has an irrigation network that other states can envy. The state has won many Krishi Karman awards. It has beaten Punjab in wheat production. It is a power-surplus state. But, after 18.5 years in power and 16 years of them with Shivraj as the chief minister, the BJP is now battling a fatigue factor. How well it can combat anti-incumbency will prove to be crucial in the electoral outcome.For the Congress, this is an opportunity for redemption. In 2018, the Kamal Nath government was short-lived because Jyotiraditya Scindia rebelled with 22 MLAs and walked over to the BJP. Congress calls this betrayal and Kamal Nath calls the current BJP government “kharidi hui sarkar”. In the 15 months of Kamal Nath as the CM, administration began fulfilling their manifesto promises and the farm loan waiver, for instance, was being rolled out. But BJP had a strong campaign to say it wasn't.In September 2026, months after the Kamal Nath government was toppled, BJP's Agriculture minister Kamal Patel in the reply in the Assembly, admitted that nearly 27 lakh farm loans of up to Rs 1 lakh had actually been waived in Madhya Pradesh. Congress said it was vindication. And now, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has promised that the agri loan waiver will be resumed and completed. Madhya Pradesh had erratic monsoon this year which led to crop loss. It seems strange that a state that has won many Krishi Karman awards has farmers who are having a hard time. There was massive crop loss due to a dry August and then unprecedented rain in September. Almost 72 percent of Madhya Pradesh’s population is agrarian. On the other hand, women are a key factor in Madhya Pradesh. Shivraj Singh Chouhan's Ladli Behana Yojana is a masterstroke. Women hold the key in 29 Assembly constituents because they outnumber men here. There are at least 96 more constituencies where women are more than the average gender ratio of the state. In this scenario, Ladli Behna Yojana gives ₹1,250 to women all women above 21 years of age. Chouhan has said that this will be increased to ₹3,000. This could turn out to be BJP's major poll plank in this election.Other factors like Dalit and tribal emotions will also play a big role in Madhya Pradesh. The state has 47 Scheduled Tribe reserved seats. Last elections, Congress won, perhaps, 31 seats. This is why right after the 2018 elections top BJP leaders were holding meetings and rallies in tribal areas. They have been trying hard to woo back the tribal foot base. Tribals tend to vote en masse. Finally, don't count Shivraj Singh out because he still has a massive following and has been campaigning hard for months. ChhattisgarhChief Minister Bhupesh Baghel and the Congress seem to be on a strong footing in Chhattisgarh. The Congress has tried to patch up differences with T S Singhdeo, who was locked in a tussle with Baghel for the chief minister’s chair. The BJP has been accusing the Congress government of corruption. The Enforcement Directorate and IT have been in action in the state for over a year now. But only time will tell if it would have a bearing on the election? On the ground, paddy procurement has always been the key factor in the state. In 2018, the Congress had said it would pay Rs 2,500 per quintal of paddy. In Chhattisgarh, nearly 70 percent of its people depend on farming, and paddy is the main crop. Tribals are also a crucial factor being 34 per cent of the electorate. In the last election, out of the 12 seats in Bastar, Congress won 11. The next year there was a bypoll and it won the 12th as well. The BJP was wiped out in Bastar. Here also, the BJP is trying to woo back the tribal voter.What role will anti-incumbency play in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh?Anti-incumbency is like a tide. It rolls in regardless of what's happening all around. whether it's a tidal wave or a tidal ripple is a different matter. In 2018. it turned out to be a tidal wave for the Congress in Chhattisgarh and the BJP was swept out of power. Even Baghel probably cannot escape anti-incumbency but as of now, it doesn't seem to be a very big factor in Chhattisgarh.In Madhya Pradesh, anti-incumbency is a crucial factor this time. That said, Shivraj Singh Chouhan is perhaps still the most popular state leader in Madhya Pradesh. In 2018, he had pulled the party back to near level with Congress in the last three or four weeks of intense campaign. But BJP is indeed battling the fatigue factor, which is why it is projecting multiple leaders as possible chief minister faces. Jyotiraditya Scindia’s rebellion in the Congress definitely helped the BJP come back to power, but it seems that there is anti-incumbency even within the party. The entry of Team Scindia into the BJP has completely disrupted the old equations. In the last mayoral elections, BJP had a hard time giving candidates. That’s an indication of how things will be in the Assembly election.Why is BJP is projecting many leaders as the chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, but Congress appears happy with Kamal Nath?In Madhya Pradesh, this is unique in 2023 polls. For the first time, one can see multiple faces being propped up as potential chief ministers. The BJP’s second list probably came as a surprise to many big BJP leaders as well. Never before have so many MPs and heavyweights been fielded in Assembly elections. As of now, 10 percent of the 79 seats declared have either MPs, Union ministers or very senior BJP leaders contesting Assembly seats. Except for three, these are seats that BJP lost in 2018. The three seats have been replaced by sitting MLAs. All new faces in the list are MPs. Narendra Singh Tomar is heading the BJP state election campaign committee, Kailash Vijayvargiya is the BJP national general secretary and a strong leader, tribal leader Faggan Singh Kulaste is in the Union cabinet, Pralhad Patel, and of course, Jyotiraditya Scindia. There are 150 more seats to go. BJP is countering anti-incumbency by not projecting any one leader as the chief minister. So now, many leaders are saying that they would be the chief minister. This is a factor that was prevalent in the Congress, never in the BJP. On the other hand, Congress seems to be happy with Kamal Nath, which is a departure from the past. These are two very contrasting battle strategies, and it would be interesting to see which way it goes.Is it correct to call these polls as mini elections before the big one next year?No, it's wrong to say that. In the recent past, state elections have not been an indicator to which way the Lok Sabha polls will go. In 2019, voters in Odisha voted for the BJD in one booth, and then walked to next booth and voted for Narendra Modi in the Centre. But yes, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh polls can surely provide insights into the region's political landscape. Audio production: Sahil Gupta