Karnataka elections: What BJP's defeat means for the party

The BJP suffered a massive defeat in the recent Karnataka Assembly polls as the Congress, on its own, scripted an impressive win of 135 seats out of 224. The result has come at a time when Opposition leaders like Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav and Sharad Pawar are making efforts to stitch together a united front and take on the BJP in the 2024 general elections.What was the reason for the debacle?All political parties have a strategy to never concede defeat before the actual battle begins. Privately, there was acceptance among the BJP leaders of the huge battle. They knew they were at the receiving end of Congress’ extensive and aggressive campaign. Internal feedback suggested that the BJP was not going to do too well. But had they accepted this earlier, it would have meant a further loss. It was their tactics.Karnataka is a state where anti-incumbency begins from Day One. Since 1985, not a single government has been re-elected after five years. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah do not accept defeat easily. They have converted many adverse situations into opportunities. For instance, everybody had written off Haryana in the last Assembly elections. But they fought strongly and converted it into victory. In Uttarakhand, political parties did not make a comeback after being in power for five years. The BJP has changed that trend. In Uttar Pradesh, they repeated their success. So, they hoped that they could change that trend in Karnataka, but that did not happen. They kept saying they would get good numbers to boost the morale of the cadres.There may have been a gap between ground feedback and facts — between what they were told and what existed.What is the road ahead for the BJP?The party will have to rethink. It will have to re-strategize and start from scratch. Since 2014, when Narendra Modi took over as the Prime Minister, it has lost many elections — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. But in almost all these states, the defeat margin was very small. But this did not happen in Karnataka despite an intensive campaign.The BJP was banking on the performance of double engine governance at the Centre and the state government. They expected to rely on the delivery of welfare schemes and the agenda of development. Unfortunately for them, that did not happen. It is a wake-up call for them. They will have to re-strategize almost every aspect, be it selection of candidates, deployment of national and state leaders, campaigning, or, of course, the mechanism of taking feedback.The national leaders insisted on good coordination between the state government and the party organization. But this did not happen in Karnataka. They have to bring in these changes when they go to phase three elections in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and, of course, 2024 Lok Sabha elections. What impact will the debacle have on Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh elections and the national elections in 2024?In Rajasthan, BJP has been synonymous with Vasundhara Raje. In every election, she leads the campaign and is the face of the party. She presumes that she would be the next state chief minister. This is one more state where anti-incumbency starts from Day One. Incumbents have been losing for almost four decades. Leadership is a big issue in Rajasthan because Vasundhara Raje has been the face of the party for a long time. She has been the chief minister thrice. She is five-time Lok Sabha MP. Her son is a five-time MP.Central leadership is not in the mood to send across the message that leadership is confined to one family or person. To decentralize state units, they appointed Satish Punia as the president. Then CP Joshi was appointed as the state president. Now, Rajendra Rathore, who is close to Vasundhara, has been appointed as Leader of the Opposition in the state Assembly. But I don't think Vasundhara Raje will accept this mechanism.Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan has been the chief minister for four times. Voters may be fatigued now. There may be many challengers as well. Central leadership might be thinking whether to go ahead with Yuvraj Singh Chauhan or project someone else.In Chhattisgarh, they have done nothing. We have not heard anything concrete. They have to explore and find someone to replace Raman Singh, who has been the chief minister for three times.Will polarisation between the BJP and Muslims impact the party’s efforts to reach out to the community, especially the Pasmandas?It came as a surprise to all reporters covering the BJP. In some internal BJP meetings, the Prime Minister spoke about reaching out to weaker sections even among the minority communities. He said the focus should not be only on getting votes. He said we should communicate our agenda of development to all sections of society, including Muslims.But when it came to selecting candidates, they did not field any Muslim candidate. This is because when they did it earlier, none could succeed. They said they would not give up their seats.In UP and Bihar, Pasmanda section of Muslims is high, and they have been very decisive politically. In recent elections, be it in West Bengal or Karnataka, there was huge polarization against the BJP. Muslim voters have identified the winnability of candidates coming from anti-BJP parties and they have voted against BJP en bloc. This is a huge challenge for the BJP.Has the party become over-dependent on Narendra Modi and become complacent?Modi has bailed out the party at several places. In Himachal, the BJP polled only 35,000 votes less than the Congress. There have been occasions when the Prime Minister has campaigned, which has resulted positively for the BJP. There was a kind of complacency in several states. They understand that the Prime Minister will campaign, and so people will vote for the party. There has to be a judicious mix between the appeal of Prime Minister Modi and the performance of the respective state governments.Will 2024 elections be a far bigger challenge for the BJP?Look at the trends. In Karnataka, BJP had lost assembly polls but they swept the Lok Sabha polls. In Maharashtra also they did well. In Bihar, they swept Lok Sabha polls although they had done very badly in assembly polls. The trend is that BJP does well in Lok Sabha polls even if they do not do well in state polls. But it is a battle of perceptions.A sense is now developing in the Opposition that Prime Minister Modi is not invincible. He can be defeated. They can, at least, convince like-minded parties to come together, fight elections against BJP pan-India. Audio production: Shantanu Nanoti