Nathan MacKinnon vs. Leon Draisaitl: Who's Winning the 2024-25 NHL Art Ross Trophy Race?

The 2024-25 NHL season is in its final stretch, and the Art Ross Trophy race is as tight as ever. Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers) and Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche) sit at the top, deadlocked in points, making this one of the closest finishes in recent history.

With FanDuel listing both at near-even odds, the question isn’t just who will win—it’s who has the edge. Draisaitl’s goal-scoring or MacKinnon’s playmaking? Past wins or fresh momentum? And where does Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning) fit in?

Two players. One scoring title. No room for error.

Leon Draisaitl’s goal-scoring gives him the edge for the Art Ross Trophy in 2024-25

Leon Draisaitl isn’t just leading the NHL in points—he’s doing it as a pure goal-scorer. Through 58 games, the Edmonton Oilers star has 43 goals and 44 assists (87 points), putting him on pace for 123 points.

That’s bad news for Nathan MacKinnon. Historically, goal-heavy players have the advantage in tight scoring races. If two players finish with the same points, the tiebreaker goes to the one with more goals. Draisaitl wins that category easily.

He’s done this before. Back in 2019-20, he took both the Art Ross and Hart Trophy with 110 points in 71 games. That year, the Oilers were good but not great, finishing fourth in the West. This year, they’re in a similar spot—not a top seed, but Draisaitl is carrying them.

The FanDuel odds reflect reality:

• Art Ross Trophy: -115 (favorite)
• Hart Trophy: -160 (favorite)

Unless he cools off, this is his race to lose.

Nathan MacKinnon’s point production is elite, but Colorado Avalanche's playoff position could hurt him

Nathan MacKinnon isn’t far behind, and by "not far," we mean he’s literally tied in points with Leon Draisaitl. He’s playing at an MVP level for the Colorado Avalanche, with 21 goals and 66 assists (87 points) in 59 games.

The problem? He’s not scoring enough goals.

Last season, MacKinnon had 140 points but still lost the Art Ross to Nikita Kucherov. He’s been one of the best playmakers in the league, but when you’re fighting against someone like Draisaitl—who can score at will—assists don’t win you scoring titles.

Then, there’s the Colorado Avalanche's playoff situation. They currently hold the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference. If they drop further and somehow miss the playoffs, MacKinnon’s case for the Hart Trophy is done. History backs this—only three players have won MVP without making the playoffs:

• Al Rollins (1954)
• Andy Bathgate (1959)
• Mario Lemieux (1988)

For the Art Ross, though? Playoffs don’t matter. It’s purely points-based, and MacKinnon has a shot. But he needs to start scoring more goals now.

Nikita Kucherov could still steal the Art Ross Trophy, but he has ground to cover

Nikita Kucherov sits two points behind Draisaitl and MacKinnon, with 26 goals and 59 assists (85 points). His +185 Art Ross odds suggest he’s not out of it yet.

The Tampa Bay Lightning winger has already won two Art Ross Trophies (2018-19, 2023-24). If he pulls this off, he’ll become just the 10th player in NHL history to win it three or more times. That list includes names like Gordie Howe, Wayne Gretzky, and Mario Lemieux.

Kucherov has been on fire lately, picking up points in eight straight games. If he keeps this pace and Draisaitl or MacKinnon slow down, he could sneak in. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No.

Who wins the Art Ross Trophy in 2024-25?

Leon Draisaitl should take it. More goals. More finishing ability. More ways to close out the race.

Nathan MacKinnon is an elite playmaker, but unless he starts scoring more, he’s finishing second—again.

Nikita Kucherov? Outside shot.

With 24-25 games left, this race isn’t over, but unless something changes, Draisaitl is taking home the Art Ross Trophy in 2024-25.
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