IPL playoffs scenarios: With 10 matches to go, LSG have 6.3% chance of progressing — odds for each team explained

| Shankar Raghuraman | TIMESOFINDIA.COM | May 19, 2025, 12:27 IST

With 10 league games remaining, CSK, RR, SRH, and KKR are elimina... Read More

With 10 games remaining in the league stage, CSK, RR, SRH and KKR are already out of contention for the playoffs.

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GT, RCB and PBKS are now sure to make the playoffs, but MI still have a fair chance and DC relatively less so, while LSG have slim chances.

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There remain 1,024 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the six remaining in the race.

We look at the probabilities:

Team	Best case scenario	Worst case scenario	Chances (%) of making or tying for top 4	Chances (%) of making or tying for top 2
RCB	Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and GT lose at least one	Finish sole 4th. Can happen if they lose all their remaining games	100.0	68.8
GT	Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win their remaining games	Finish tied 3rd with MI by losing all remaining games	100.0	82.8
PBKS	Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and both RCB and GT lose at least one	Finish sole 4th if they lose their remaining games	100.0	68.8
MI	Tied for the top spot at 18 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB, GT and PBKS lose their remaining games	Finish 6^th by losing all remaining games	62.5	6.3
DC	Tied 2^nd with RCB and PBKS on 17 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and PBKS lose theirs and GT loses one	Finish 7^th by losing all the remaining games	35.9	3.1
LSG	Finish sole 4^th on 16 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, and MI and DC each lose one	Finish 8^th by losing all the remaining games	6.3	0.0

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05:44

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How we arrive at the probabilities:
There are 1,024 possible combinations of results remaining with 10 games to go.

For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied.

We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly.

For instance, GT finish in the top two in 848 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 82.8% chance of being first or second, singly or jointly.

Get IPL 2025 match schedules, squads, points table, and live scores for CSK, MI, RCB, KKR, SRH, LSG, DC, GT, PBKS, and RR. Check the latest IPL Orange Cap and Purple Cap standings.