By Saturday night (September 25), 37 of the 56 group stage games of
IPL 2021
were completed, but we still don’t have a team that has certainly qualified for the playoffs nor one that is definitely out.
That’s despite Delhi Capitals (current table toppers) being on 16 points and Sunrisers Hyderabad (current wooden spoon holders) on just 2. This is because with 19 matches yet to be played in the group stage there are a mind-boggling 5,24,288 (that’s over 5.2 lakh) combinations of match results possible and hence a very large number of playoff (though not anywhere near as large) possibilities.
Shankar Raghuraman of TOI has done the calculations to show the probabilities of each team qualifying after Saturday’s games, assuming that in any given match the chances of winning or losing are 50-50, admittedly a big assumption given the form of some teams.
The analysis also ignores net run rates, since, with four to five games left for each team, current NRRs are more than likely to change significantly:
1) DC has a 99.997% chance of qualifying with just 14 of the 5.24 lakh combinations resulting in it finishing 5th. If it wins even one of its remaining four matches, it will finish no lower than third, singly or jointly.
2) CSK, currently second with 14 points, is almost as certain to make the playoffs, its chances being 99.778%, but 1,166 combinations result in it finishing 5th or even 6th. Unlike DC, winning one more game won’t absolutely guarantee qualification with six possible combinations of match results in that scenario ending in them finishing in 5th spot.
3) RCB are currently third with 10 points and have five games to play. Their chances of qualifying are at a little over 80%. They can afford to lose one more game and still be sure of finishing in the top three, singly or jointly.
4) KKR, MI and RR are two points further down the table. That leaves each of them with just over 50% chance of qualifying. Each can still finish first or last. Nothing less than winning all their remaining games will guarantee qualification
5) PBKS have the same points as these three teams and are currently in fifth spot, but with one game less to play. That leaves them with a 33% chance of qualifying. Winning all their remaining games will ensure they are at least tied for the fourth spot.
6) SRH, currently at the bottom with just two points from nine games, are not yet mathematically out of contention. There are 4,548 combinations of results that could see them finish 4th or even 3rd. But that’s less than 1% of all possible combinations. What’s amazing is that even at this stage, they could lose one of their remaining five games and tie with four other teams for fourth spot! But that’s a 0.003% chance (about one in 33,000).
Here's a quick look meanwhile at the percentage chances of qualifying for the playoffs for all 8 teams:
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