NEW DELHI: History is against them, but when the two great cricketing powers square off in the Champions Trophy semifinal in Dubai on Tuesday, India will need to have a strong spin battery and be comfortable with the conditions to break the knockout jinx against an undermanned Australia.
But even without their core group of Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, and Mitchell Starc, the Australians remain a formidable force in international competitions, so it won't be an easy feat.
The idea is supported by their incredible 352-run chase against England in Lahore a few days ago.
The last time India defeated Australia in an ICC event's knockout stage was in the quarterfinal of the 2011 World Cup.
India lost to Australia in the 2023 World Test Championship final after losing to them in the 2015 ODI World Cup semifinals and the 2023 ODI World Cup final.
The presence of some elite spinners in their ranks is the main factor contributing to this Indian team's genuine chance of rewriting the generally depressing narrative of the previous 14 years.
Although their pre-tournament choice to have five spinners in the squad received a lot of criticism, it is now turning out to be a brilliant move on Dubai's slow grounds.
Since they have had the luxury of playing all of their matches in Dubai, their familiarity of the conditions is the simplest explanation for their domination. However, that is only partly accurate. They have tried to modify their craft to fit Dubai's surface requirements.
The Indian spinners were forced to play the waiting game because there was no rapid or spitting turn available here, unlike in a dustbowl.
Varun Chakravarthy said that the secret to bowling on these decks is patience rather than magic.
"The pitch here is not a rank turner as such, which people were projecting it to be, but definitely it was holding on a bit, and it was deviating a little bit to create the doubt. So basically, you had to play around it," said Chakravarthy.
Despite taking nine New Zealand wickets, the Indian spin combination of Chakravarthy, Kuldeep Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, and Axar Patel continuously put forth effort to earn their rewards.
As the Kiwis fought to escape, they bowled 39 overs between them, delivering 128 dot balls, which culminated in a flurry of wickets.
There was a hint of desperation even in the removal of Kane Williamson, who was otherwise stoic, as his shimmy against Axar resulted in a stumping by KL Rahul.
However, Australia only has Adam Zampa as a true spinner, and they rely on Travis Head and Glenn Maxwell, who are part-timers, to perform effectively.
A calf injury has forced Matthew Short to miss the tournament, depriving the already sagging Australian bowling squad of a useful spin option.
The lack of top players was evident in the previous games, as the Australian bowlers gave up 273 and 352 runs against Afghanistan and England, respectively, albeit in better batting conditions.
As a result, players like Shubman Gill, Rohit Sharma, Shreyas Iyer, and Virat Kohli will be keen to take them on in Dubai.
Here, they have discovered the ideal batting rhythm on the slow Dubai pitches.
That's what skipper Rohit hoped.
"It is going to be a good game. Australia has a rich history of playing well in ICC tournaments. Now, it's about us to do things right. We have to be focussed on what we need to do on that day. Looking forward to that, hopefully we can stitch one towards us," he said after the match against New Zealand.
He won't be ignorant of the Australians' batting prowess, either, since they chased down a target of more than 350 without Head or skipper Steve Smith making any significant contributions.
India would undoubtedly want to get rid of them as soon as possible, especially Head, who has been the team's nemesis in recent years.
Additionally, it is an opportunity for Rohit and his team to lessen the sorrow that still lingers after their defeat to Australia in the Ahmedabad 2023 World Cup final.
Even though this match can be slow-burning, expect a cracker.
Teams (from):India: Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul, Rishabh Pant, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar, Kuldeep Yadav, Harshit Rana, Mohd. Shami, Arshdeep Singh, Ravindra Jadeja, Varun Chakaravarthy
Australia: Steve Smith (c), Sean Abbott, Alex Carey, Ben Dwarshuis, Nathan Ellis, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Aaron Hardie, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Spencer Johnson, Marnus Labuschagne, Glenn Maxwell, Tanveer Sangha, Adam Zampa, Cooper Connolly
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