India are clear favourites going into today's big-ticket clash against Pakistan, who are in danger of getting knocked outDUBAI: Eight months after India pipped Pakistan in a thrilling, low-scoring group match of the T20 World Cup on a difficult pitch in New York, cricket's most storied but, of late more of over-hyped rivalry will present its latest installment when a red-hot India, eyeing a semifinal berth, play Pakistan, struggling for survival in their first ICC tournament as hosts in 29 years, on Sunday night at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium in game five of the 2025 Champions Trophy.
Boosted by premier pacer Mohammed Shami's five-wicket haul and a brilliant century (101 not out) by classy opener Shubman Gill-enjoying a purple patch in ODIs- India vanquished Bangladesh by six wickets in their lung-opener on Thursday.
With Shami roaring back into form, the young Harshit Rana having impressed so far, and India's three-pronged spin attack, which conceded just 123 runs in 29 overs looking effective on this slow pitch which didn't seem to be too conducive for stroke-making, India's attack looks fairly decent and good enough for the job even without the talismanic Jasprit Bumrah. Left-arm spinner Axar Patil was unlucky to have missed out on the first hat-trick in the Champions Trophy since 2006, and while Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav went wicketless, they were economical.
However, India's biggest USP at the moment seems to be Gill, currently the No 1 rated batsman in the ODIs. The Indian vice-captain has shrugged off his struggles in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy on the fast and bouncy pitches in Australia and looked in prime form.
While Gill is yet to prove his mettle in Test cricket-his average after 32 Tests is a mere 35.05, in the ODIs, his numbers, as Indian captain Rohit Sharma said before the Bangladesh game, are "crazy"-2688 runs in 51 matches@62.51, with eight hundreds and 15 fifties. Gill's scores in his last four ODIs are -87, 60, 112 & 101*. At the moment, Gill, whether he is dancing down the track to hit he bowlers inside out or flick and pulling them through the square leg, is finding the sweet spot of the bat and only seeing the gaps on the field. The two sixes that he smashed to mid-wicket off Tanzim Hasan Sakib on Thursday night will remain etched in the memory for long.
India will also be encouraged by the way 'keeper-bat KL Rahul chipped in with a useful 41 not out to help Gill finish off the chase against Bangladesh.
Kohli puts in extra hours to counter spin threatOn Saturday, India's superstar bat Virat Kohli, in a bid to sort out his issues against spin, arrived three hours before the scheduled practice time at the ICC Cricket Academy, along with assistant coach Abhishek Nayar. He practiced against the top 20 bowlers of UAE-left-arm spinners and leg-spinners.
With Indian captain Rohit Sharma showing glimpses of his vintage form in his 36-ball 41, India's sole worry will be the scratchy form of Kohli, who, after scoring 22 in the last match, succumbed to a leg-spinner for the third time in a row when he cut a Rishad Hossain delivery to backward point-twice in the ODI series against England at home, he succumbed to Rashid Khan.
Perhaps, playing against Pakistan, against whom he enjoys a tremendous record-678 runs in 16 ODIs @52.15, with three hundreds and a highest score of 183 at Dhaka in 2012, will bring the best out of the former India captain. Pakistan leggie Abrar Ahmed, and even left-armer Khushdil Shah and off-spinner Salman Agha will fancy their chances against the ageing superstar.
Meanwhile, Pakistan, who trained under lights at the ICC Academy here after arriving on Friday for this big-ticket clash, are already staring at the embarrassment of an early exit from the tournament after going down to an efficient New Zealand by 60 runs losing their opening match, outplayed as they were in all the departments at the National Stadium in Karachi. Perennial slow starters, their woes have been worsened after explosive opener Fakhar Zaman was ruled out of the event on Wednesday.
Fakhar's enforced ouster has deprived the team of its second first-choice opener following the untimely injury to Saim Ayub in Australia. Eight years ago, at The Oval on June 17, it was Fakhar who played a stellar role in Pakistan's sensational 180-run victory over India in the final of the 2017 Champions Trophy in England.
The man to have replaced Fakhar is another left-handed opener in Imam-ul-Haq, but unlike Fakhar, he isn't someone who can destroy a bowling attack. Another worry for Pakistan the strike rate these days of former captain Babar Azam, who took 90 balls to score 64 against the Kiwis the other day.
Apart from current form, history too is stacked heavily against Pakistan, and in favour of India here. At ICC events, spanning both the white-ball formats, India own a 17-4 record against their arch-rivals, which means that they enter Sunday's contest as the overwhelming favourites. In the past two weeks, Pakistan have lost three ODIs to New Zealand at home. However, Mohammad Rizwan & Co can draw confidence from the fact that three out of Pakistan's four victories over India at ICC tournaments have come at the Champions Trophy, including the final in 2017. At the moment, though, the defending champions face the prospect of being eliminated from the tournament.
With their backs to the wall, facing an in-form India in a must-win league game, Pakistan are drawing inspiration from two favourable results they have had against India at the DICS in recent times. They had beaten India here in October 2021 and September 2022, albeit in T20Is.
"We have beaten India twice here in Dubai. We will aim to make it three and repeat those performances. We are confident, and it will be a great match," Pakistan pacer Harris Rauf said on Friday evening.
Underlining the magnitude of the big game against India and the need to forget about the Kiwi defeat, Rauf said "What's past is past. We are now focusing on the India game. We will address the mistakes we made in the previous game and try not to repeat them. For us, it's an important fixture; a do-or-die game. We need to win this to stand a chance of qualifying for the semifinals."
Rauf, who conceded 83-2 in 10 overs against New Zealand claimed that the morale of his side ahead of the must-win game was still upbeat. "The morale is not down; all the boys will try hard and give their best. It is an important fixture, and we will aim to perform well in all departments - batting, bowling, and fielding. There is no extra pressure; we are relaxed. We will treat it as just another match," he said.
While the form book favours India, Pakistan can be unpredictable and mercurial. It's pertinent to remember that Pakistan are at their most dangerous when they have their backs to the wall.
The 'hosts' will once again bank on their pacers Shaheen Shah Afridi, Naseem Shah, Rauf and Mohammad Hasnain- who can be terrific or erratic on a given day.
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