‘Will there be a Shiv-Sena government with support from NCP and Congress?’ My friend asked. My answer was very simple. In the Indian polity, everything is possible. Ideologies are just part of election manifestos. When the question of power comes, then all type of adjustments, compromises and accommodations are done in the name of Common Minimum Program.
Frankly, the mandate was a government by BJP and Shiv Sena headed by Devendra Fadnavish as Chief Minister. But then Shiv Sena has its own aspiration as well as opposition camps like NCP and Congress has their own political compulsions. Thus, anything can be possible to stop BJP from power.
Post-emergence of Narendra Modi as a central leader of the party, BJP has really expanded exponentially in various parts of the country. It not only taken away opposition’s space in many parts of the country but also took away spaces of its own allies. For example, BJP was once a junior partner of INLD in Haryana. Now BJP is the main party in Haryana and INLD is almost finished. In UP, once BJP-BSP were in an alliance where BSP was the major partner. Post Narendra Modi’s emergence, BSP squeezed whereas BJP expanded.
The same thing is also happening in Maharashtra. Post Raj Thackeray’s defection, Bal Thackeray’s retirement from active politics followed by his demise Shiv Sena weakened in Maharashtra a lot. Then Narendra Modi’s emergence made Shiv Sena cede further space to BJP. That’s why Shiv Sena is trying to bargain hard with BJP along with mulling to be sided with BJP’s opposition.
History always repeats. There was a time when all non-Congress parties united ignoring their ideological differences to defeat Congress. Anti-Congress politics was the mainstay of opposition politics. Similar things are repeating now. Anti-BJP politics became the mainstay of opposition politics and some former BJP allies are joining with opposition just to survive. Time will tell how SAD and JDU will work out their ties with BJP. But at present, it’s understandable that Shiv Sena has a serious concern about losing its support base to BJP in Maharashtra.
Thus, if there would be a post-poll alliance between Shiv Sena-Congress and NCP happens, none should be surprised. It’s the present trend and anti-BJP politics is the mainstay of opposition politics. The question should be asked whether such a post-poll alliance gives a stable government.
I think although such a government can be formed, then that government may not survive a longer duration. The Shiv Sena and Congress-NCP have contrary vote banks. Such a coalition may not be accepted by the ground party worker which will be reflected through their MLAs. Thus, there might be defections. Already as per TOI report, an independent MLA, Ravi Rana claimed that 25 of Shiv Sena MLAs are in contact with BJP. Then there could be a defection in NCP and Congress. We have seen what happened in Goa, Karnataka and Arunachal Pradesh. Whether BJP forms government or not but the post-poll alliance between Shiv Sena and NCP supported by Congress doesn’t appear to be a stable one.
Thus, who are forming a government may be difficult to predict but whoever forms the government, that may not be stable for sure. Will there be a mid-term election in Maharashtra? Who knows, it may also happen? At least Congress and NCP will wish such a mid-term election because congress-NCP’s combined vote share is more than that of BJP alone.
they are making a mockery of the verdict given by the voter of maharashtra.