The debate is now escalated as to who will win American election 2020 especially after back-to-back conventions of Democrats and Republicans. If one believes American news media then it’s very difficult for Donald Trump to be re-elected because his opponent Joe Biden is around 8% ahead of him. So, is Biden undoubtedly the next President of America? Think again!
Just recall the American election 2016. Wasn’t according to all opinion polls, Hilary Clinton was winning hands down? What happened then? Isn’t the situation almost the same as 2016 if we study the American media? Well, the media’s forecast is almost the same but there’s a difference too. Biden is not as popular as Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump has a factor of incumbency. Is there anti-incumbency? Is really Trump winning or losing? Let’s analyze from various aspects.
When there’s anti-incumbency against a President, his opponent should get more than 60% popular choice votes. But in the present case, although American news media puts Biden ahead of Donald Trump but gives 50-51% vote share. Thus, one can’t say Biden will win hands down rather it could be said that around half of the voters not yet decide on Biden.
Next, let’s come to nationalistic issues. The trend around the World is nationalism. Trump already proved that he believes in nationalism and his vision is ‘America First’. The American public is fully aware that Donald Trump is bent upon to bring back factories and companies to America to generate employment. In fact, before COVID menace American economy took a boosting. The tough negotiation with China on the trade deal and even with India created a lot of trust in Donald Trump among common Americans. Point is simple, nationalism always makes public rally behind a leader practising nationalism.
Many American media are blaming Donald Trump for mishandling the COVID menace. But the real fact is that states having democrat governors suffer a lot due to COVID 19? In the American system, states are more powerful and health is a state subject. So, can people blame Donald trump only? Let’s compare in the Indian context where health is a concurrent subject. Yet people blame state governments where COVID 19 is out of control. Thus, instead of trusting media, let’s use common sense.
Let’s come now to the present racial conflict in America. Some black people were shot and killed by white Policemen which gave rise to huge protests. Democrats immediately backed the protests. Donald Trump cleverly denounces the shooting but also condemns the violent protest and vandalism. In fact, he also firmly said to take action against vandals. Democrats didn’t utter a single word on the vandalization. That means the country is divided across racial lines. Democrats stand for black. The majority American who are whites although condemns the police atrocities to the black people but they equally condemn the violence and vandalism. Here their stand is matching with that of Donald Trump. Thus, if there’s a polarization between majority and minority communities, then who will win? Take the example of the 2019 Indian general election.
The American public is very angry about China whereas China openly supports Biden. Democrats are claiming that Russia is supporting Donald Trump. This might be correct. But then China at the moment is a greater evil than Russia because of COVID. Thus, who will be preferred? China supported Biden or allegedly Russia supported Trump.
Let’s come to the Indian-American community’s choice. They are less in number but can be decisive in a couple of states. They are originally supporters of Democrats but Modi-Trump bonhomie changed the mood. Democrats brought Kamala Harris as the VP candidate to woo Indian-Americans. But the issue is that Kamala Harris before her nomination always identified with the black community (Jamaican Father) and never identified with Indians or Asians. Rather she displayed anti-India posture supporting Pakistan on Kashmir and also Shaheen Bagh protest against CAA. That means for the first time Republicans are getting Indian-American votes which would be for a first. Just recall the UK election. Because of the anti-India stand of the Labour Party, British-Indian voters quit the labour party and supported the conservative party. In three decades, UK got a full majority government and won some seats which it never won in history thanks to Indian origin British voters. That’s the importance of the Indian diaspora.
Finally, there’s a lot of negative campaign against Donald Trump in American media. When the media intentionally does a negative campaign, the public sympathizes with the media victim. In 2014 Indian general election media did a lot of negative campaigns against Narendra Modi, the result was that for the first time BJP got a majority on its own.
In conclusion, I would say that none can predict what would be an election result that to so early. The only point is that let’s not bet on any candidate. Whatever American media and their surveys say, as of now I believe that Donald Trump is winning the 2020 presidential election. But then in politics, a week is too long. There are more than two months until the voting starts. By then there would be a lot of changes. So will do another analysis after one month.
well written article. the analysis is off course quite rational. let\'s wait and watch.