A fresh spell of unsettled weather is set to grip large parts of north, northwest and central India from January 26 as a new western disturbance approaches the region, bringing with it rain, snowfall, hailstorms, thunderstorms, gusty winds and fluctuating temperatures, according to the latest
All India Weather Summary and Forecast Bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The system is expected to mark the beginning of an active wet phase across the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains, with the most intense activity forecast for January 27 and 28. The IMD has warned of heavy rainfall and snowfall at isolated places in Jammu and Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh, along with hailstorms in several hill and adjoining plain districts, and squally winds over coastal waters in the far south.
As per the bulletin, a fresh western disturbance is likely to begin affecting northwest India from January 26. Western disturbances are key winter weather systems that originate over the Mediterranean region and move eastwards, bringing rain and snow to northern India, especially the Himalayan belt and the Indo-Gangetic plains.
Under the influence of this system, isolated to scattered rainfall and snowfall activity is expected over the western Himalayan Region over the subsequent three days starting January 26. At the same time, isolated to scattered rainfall activity is also likely over parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, indicating that the system’s influence will extend well beyond the mountains.
IMD forecast
January 26: Thunderstorms, fog and rough seas for multiple states
On Republic Day, January 26, weather conditions are expected to begin deteriorating across several regions. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are very likely at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe, bringing the possibility of brief but intense spells of rain along with thunder activity.
Dense fog is also likely at isolated locations over west Uttar Pradesh, potentially affecting early morning visibility and disrupting road and rail traffic in parts of the region. Fog conditions have been persistent across north India in recent days, and the bulletin indicates that they may continue into January 26 in pockets.
Marine conditions are forecast to turn rough as well. Squally weather with wind speeds of 40 to 50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, is likely over the Gulf of Mannar and the Comorin area. Fishermen have been advised to exercise caution and avoid venturing into these waters during the period of strong winds and rough seas.
Rainfall activity on January 26 is expected to remain fairly widespread to scattered over parts of the western Himalayan Region, while isolated rainfall may occur over Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
January 27: Peak impact with heavy snow, hailstorms and strong winds
January 27 is expected to be the most active day of the weather spell, with widespread and potentially disruptive conditions across the Western Himalayas and adjoining plains. Heavy rainfall or snowfall is likely at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh and the Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh region. These heavy spells may lead to fresh snow accumulation in higher reaches, potentially affecting road connectivity in mountain passes and triggering localised disruptions in transport and daily life.
Thunderstorms accompanied by hailstorms are likely at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and parts of Uttarakhand.
Thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds reaching 40 to 50 kmph are also likely over Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, and western Uttar Pradesh. Over east Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, and Punjab, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 30 to 40 kmph are expected at isolated places.
In central and western regions, thunderstorms with lightning are likely at isolated places over Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand, indicating that the influence of the western disturbance will extend deep into the plains.
Rainfall distribution on January 27 is expected to be widespread or at most places over Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, and fairly widespread over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, and west Uttar Pradesh. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is also forecast over east Uttar Pradesh, east and west Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh.
January 28: Gradual weakening but continued storm activity
By January 28, the intensity of the system is expected to gradually decrease, but unsettled weather will continue in several regions. Thunderstorms accompanied by hailstorms are likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, while thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds of 40 to 50 kmph are forecast over west Uttar Pradesh. East Uttar Pradesh may witness thunderstorms with gusty winds of 30 to 40 kmph, and thunderstorms with lightning are likely at isolated places over Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Rainfall activity is expected to remain fairly widespread to scattered over the Western Himalayan Region and northwest plains, but is likely to decrease thereafter as the western disturbance begins to move away.
Squally weather with wind speeds of 40 to 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to continue over the Comorin area, keeping marine conditions unfavourable for small fishing vessels.
Fog and cold wave conditions till January 26
Dense to very dense fog conditions are expected to persist in pockets over Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh on January 25 and 26, while dense fog is also likely over Himachal Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the same period. Madhya Pradesh may also witness dense fog on January 25.
Cold wave conditions are likely in isolated pockets over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh and Rajasthan on January 25 and 26. However, no specific dense fog or cold wave warnings have been indicated beyond January 26, suggesting that conditions may improve as the new weather system becomes dominant.
Travel advisory
As per IMD forecasts, the mountains are expected to get heavy snowfall and hailstorms. This may affect road connectivity, tourism activities and horticulture operations. In the plains, thunderstorms, gusty winds and hail may disrupt transport. Fog conditions on January 26 may continue to affect flight schedules, train services and highway traffic in parts of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana..
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