1,126,000 abortions: Why US birth rate is plummeting to record lows since 2025

The Republican world is currently breezing with good news. Second Lady Usha Vance, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller's wife Katie Miller are all expecting new babies in their families. Over the past few months, leading Republicans including Vice President JD Vance and Erika Kirk have been promoting family expansion repeatedly. During his first address as Vice President in January 2025, JD Vance said "I want more babies in America." He repeated the sentiment in a January 2026 address when he advised fellow Americans that they will find "great meaning" if they dedicate themselves to the "creation and sustenance of human life." Erika Kirk, the widow of late far-right political activist Charlie Kirk also advised women not to "put off" having kids, saying: "If you're a young woman don't put it off. You can always have a career, you can always go back to work." But this sudden push and promotion for a higher birth rate in the name of fulfilment highlights one of the most difficult crises that America is trying to overcome right now: A declining birth rate and youth population. The American fertility rate fell in 2025 to another record low, extending the two decades of decline, as per federal data released recently. The fertility rate, number of births per 1000 women declined to 53.1 from 53.8 in 2024, as per a National Center for Health Statistics study. Roughly 3.6 million babies were born in the US in 2025, a 1% drop from 2024, according to the center. The fertility rate has been falling since 2007, evolving into somewhat of a mystery that neither the government nor the public has been able to solve. Here are some causes of the sharp fall as analysed by experts: The fertility rate for teenagers dropped by 7% from 2024's figure setting a record low for the group. The rate is down by a whopping 81% since 1991 and 72% since 2007. This is partly due to better public health education, access to birth control and a decline in sexual activity by teens. Brady Hamilton, lead author of the study said it is "extraordinary" that the rate of teenagers giving birth had fallen so starkly. According to Guttmacher Institute, showed that an estimated 1,126,000 abortions were provided by US clinicians in 2025. The data is largely unchanged from 2024, when 1,124,000 abortions were provided. This is the highest number of abortions provided in US since 2009, marking another factor into the reduced birth rate crisis. This is despite policymakers attacking abortion care and expanding criminalisation efforts with 13 states banning abortions.Some demographers claim the drop in births among teenagers and women in their early 20s is because women have more control over their fertility. Women are still having children, but they are just having them later. The numbers substantiate the claim as the fertility rate among women in their 30s and 40s is on the rise. The fertility rate for women from 30 to 34 rose by 3 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year.“The declines in the age-specific fertility rates of women in their 20s are likely related to increases in age at first marriage along with uncertainty and stress about the future,” said Wendy Manning, a sociology professor at Bowling Green State University, in an email to The Washington Post. Ever since the Trump administration's second innings, the population in the United States has been dragged down by not one but two factors. A drop in immigration and a lower fertility rate. Over the past years, the cost of housing and health care has increased whereas the wages have remained stagnant. While the Trump administration has tried to encourage couples to have children with savings accounts for newborns, discounts on medication for IVF and tax credits, the larger expenditure on sustenance is more pressurising than the relief. Martha Bailey, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles said that while the decline in the rate may look 'significant' it could reverse course. A similar situation had developed in the 1970s when the fertility rate had dipped sharply to below replacement levels. However, by the time that cohort of women reached their mid-40s, they had an average of 1.9 children, with the subsequent groups having an average of two. “They weren’t opting out of motherhood, they were delaying it,” she said to The New York Times. While it remains unclear if the youngest cohort, the Gen Z women will eventually have children and make up for the delay, the example of the 1970s shows that they might. However, as per other demographers, the journey is going to be long and difficult. This is because almost half of the country's 30-year-olds are childless. Demographic health is one of the most delicate balances that a nation has to maintain. A shrinking population can threaten social safety nets with a lack of workers and taxpayers, whereas fast-paced growth can strain the resources.