Will Bird Flu trigger another pandemic and lead to lockdowns? Here’s what experts have to say

The recent discovery of a human case of H5N1 bird flu in Canada is raising alarms over the possibility of a new pandemic. A teenager in British Columbia remains in critical condition with acute respiratory distress due to testing positive for the virus-which is a new strain in Canada.

The teenager, whose identity and age have not been disclosed was reported that he had never been exposed to any health problems and was absolutely fit before the disease occurred, according to a report broadcasted on NBC's daily news show. During the press briefing by Dr. Bonnie Henry, the provincial health officer of British Columbia said that the teen had not been in direct contact with birds or livestock but had interacted with pets such as dogs, cats, and reptiles.The reason behind the illness has yet to be discovered.

The Public Health Agency of Canada confirmed that the patient is suffering from the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which has spread among birds and poultry and has infected mammals while occasionally infecting humans. This incident follows a larger outbreak in the United States, where 46 human infections have been reported this year across several states like California, Colorado, and Texas. Most of these cases involved direct exposure to infected animals, but health officials are closely monitoring how the virus spreads.

What is H5N1 Bird Flu?
Bird flu or avian influenza primarily affects birds, but sometimes they also infect other animals and humans. H5N1 is just one of the subtypes of the avian influenza virus that has infected several people since it was first identified in 1997. According to the National Library of Medicine, avian influenza viruses can affect birds and humans. Despite the fact that the cases brought about by H5N1 have experienced severe outbreaks in birds worldwide, it is relatively less dangerous for humans because it cannot easily be passed directly from person to person.

As Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security's Dr. Amesh Adalja reflected, H5N1 had plenty of time to change since its first detection and doesn't spread easily between people. "I don't think this is the most dangerous bird flu strain," he said to TODAY. "You can't say it's zero risk. But of the bird flu, it's lower risk."

Dr. Ian Lipkin, a viral threats expert at Columbia University, echoed this sentiment by highlighting that while the virus could potentially evolve to become more transmissible, it has not done so thus far. "Could this virus evolve to become more transmissible? Yes. Has it done so thus far? No," he cautioned.

Will it lead to a Pandemic?
Experts agree that the likelihood of a pandemic caused by H5N1 is still small because the virus is still quite poorly transmissible from human to human. While there are concerns about various avian influenza strains potentially causing pandemics in the future, Adalja pointed out that H7N9 is a more pressing concern. This strain was first reported in humans in China in 2013 and has caused severe illness in those infected. While surveillance by entities like the CDC will continue, Adalja said that proactive measures are preferable over lockdowns if H5N1 is proven to be a serious health threat. "Lockdowns are very blunt tools," he says. More tactical approaches would include better testing of farm animals for example.

While experts comment on the possibility of a lockdown because of outbreaks involving the bird flu, they do not believe this is a likely scenario for H5N1 as it is not a current serious health threat. Lipkin mentioned that if H5N1 were to become a major health issue requiring containment strategies, discussions would need to occur about how far authorities would go to implement such measures.

Overall, experts claim that the threat of a pandemic immediately caused by H5N1 is low although it is still a source of concern for causing animal and human diseases.