COVID-19 is gaining ground across the United States as the holiday season approaches, coinciding with one of the busiest travel periods of the year and a sharp rise in influenza cases. Health officials say the timing, colder weather, indoor gatherings, and overlapping respiratory viruses, is creating conditions that could push infections higher in the weeks ahead.
Earlier this year, the United States experienced a late-summer COVID wave driven by the highly contagious XFG variant, also known as “Stratus.” After a relative slowdown during the fall, case activity is beginning to climb again.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 infections were growing or likely growing in 31 states as of Dec. 16, stable in 15 states, and declining in just one state.
Stratus continues to account for the vast majority of COVID cases nationwide. Like other omicron subvariants, it spreads easily, especially in crowded indoor settings. As holiday travel and family gatherings increase, experts warn the virus will have more opportunities to circulate, a concern compounded by low vaccination uptake.
Is COVID-19 surging right now?
COVID-19 cases are increasing, though overall levels remain lower than during peak winter surges in previous years. For the week ending Dec. 13, national COVID-19 viral activity in wastewater was classified as “low,” based on CDC wastewater surveillance data. Still, 15 states were reporting “high” or “moderate” activity, with much of that concentrated in the Midwest.
At the same time, WastewaterSCAN, a virus monitoring program run by Stanford University and Emory University, shows SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the “high” range nationwide. A spokesperson for WastewaterSCAN told TODAY.com that concentrations have increased 21% since November.
“Clearly, influenza has taken a big jump up this last week ... but COVID has been moving up in a more gradual way,” Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
Today.com reports that hospitalizations linked to COVID-19 are beginning to edge upward, particularly among adults aged 65 and older, Schaffner said. While the trend is concerning, he noted it follows a familiar seasonal pattern.
COVID-19 can surge year-round, but it typically produces two major waves, one during winter and another in late summer. These increases are influenced by emerging variants, declining immunity over time, and spikes in travel and indoor social activity.
Where COVID-19 cases are rising
The Midwest and Northeast are currently seeing the most pronounced increases. Based on CDC wastewater data as of Dec. 18, the following states are reporting “high” or “moderate” levels of COVID-19 viral activity:
Arizona
Connecticut
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Dakota
West Virginia
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