Coronavirus: Will the third COVID wave be severe for kids? Or deadlier than the second wave? Some myths cleared

A lot has been said about the potential rise of a third COVID-19 wave in India. While there's been a concerning rise in the positivity rate in some states, some models have predicted that there could be an extreme rise in the daily number of cases, even more than what we saw being reported during the second wave. And yet, there are 'strong' conflicting reports that suggest a less intense third wave. So, while, on one hand, we must not be complacent with COVID prevention strategies right now, what do we know is the truth about the third wave? How do you separate fact from fiction and prepare the best way to tackle the onset of the third wave?

Some reports and mathematical models, which claimed to have accurately predicted the rise of cases during the second wave have predicted that India might witness a higher reporting of cases during the upcoming third wave. A prediction by the NITI Aayog has estimated that there could be as many as 26 Lakh cases reported during the peak. While the case numbers and models may help us 'better prepare' for what is to come and avoid the horrors of the second wave, there's no clear information available as to how really severe these cases could be. For one, not only is it impossible to predict the exact severity of disease beforehand (the second wave's surge is a good example of that), the only real way to tackle a surge and heightened severity is preparedness. The more precautious we are, the healthcare resources are available will be the only deciding factors right now.

The severity is also something that could be factored by the spread of nasty variants, such as the Delta variant. While a high percentage of the population got exposed to the variant previously, it could possibly be 'impossible' for the virus to still be as infectious and severity inducing. Thus, even if there could be a high reporting of cases, we will have to wait and watch about how severe and damaging the third wave can be.

Again, there's a prediction that the third wave of COVID-19 could hit all states in an equally devastating manner, and at the same time. While this may be clinically possible, it's important to remember that the geographically diverse, and state-wise population previously exposed to the virus are important determinants in deciding the intensity of any wave. It is also noteworthy that some states can record 'many' waves or isolated outbreaks, in comparison to others. For example, states like Kerala, Maharashtra, Karnataka are still recording high positivity rates- which is not seen in other states where the infection is somehow controlled. Delhi, again, was said to be going through its fourth wave of the virus, when the country was going through the second wave. Therefore, even if there's a prediction of a wave being spotted towards the end of September and peaking in October, it's too early to determine if all states will bear the brunt equally, or at the same time. The coverage of vaccinations will also be counted as an important factor right now.

While the first wave was destructive for the elderlies, the second one impacting the healthier age groups and kids to an extent, there is strong reasoning to suggest that the pediatric population could be dangerously impacted in the coming third wave- and, many kids younger than 16 could face severe issues and hospitalization risk as well.

Yes, while there may be a higher reporting of cases than what was previously seen, there's no real way to ascertain that seniors or the adult population would be spared by the virus. While reopening of schools and unavailability of vaccines would expose kids to a higher risk, the virus is said to attack the ones with a compromised immune system the most and therefore, no real way of knowing that only kids could be worst-affected.

From available observations, we also know that the present variants of the virus are only 'mildly' harsh on kids, who can very well recover at home. However, only if cases aren't controlled, and we do not have enough resources to support their needs, severity, like in the second wave could be expected. Till then, the only way to keep kids protected would be by strengthening their immunity and keeping a check on their activities.

Unlike the third wave, we now have ample vaccination coverage and a large percentage of the population that has been exposed to the virus, albeit to some extent. Thus, whenever the third wave is to come, or the cases that we see come up in the succeeding weeks will be ascertained by two factors, namely- how well the vaccines protect us, people who have been immunized, and if at all there are new variants which crop up.

While vaccines do not entirely root away the virus, amongst the immunized, it causes mild symptoms and is said to lessen down the risk of infection transmission. It could thus be possible that high surges are recorded in areas with low exposure, waning or no immunity (vaccine or otherwise). Similar do the risks run with variants. While newer, concerning variants of the virus are yet to be seen (apart from Delta and Delta Plus variant), we'll only be able to ascertain a possibly higher surge than before, if more virulent and deadly variants do come up.

Terming the coming third wave to be the last lingering signs of the pandemic would be an unrealistic, and far too early of a prediction to make at this moment. As scientists have predicted, we could see more virulent strains of the virus come up in the future (as the SARS-COV-2 virus mutates and evolves), we have to come to terms with the fact that we'll have to learn to live with the virus, and not actually sight a virus-free future in the near future.