China likely to see 36,000 deaths per day: Key points on COVID variants, symptoms and transmission rate

Health analytics company Airfinity has predicted that COVID deaths in China are likely to peak at 36,000 a day on the 26th of January during the Lunar New Year Festival.

The same firm had predicted 25,000 deaths per day.

Its model also predicts that COVID cases can peak at "4.8 million a day with 62 million infections predicted across a fortnight between 13th-27th January before beginning to fall."

Coronavirus: COVID XBB.1.5 more 'cold-like'; how to know if you have COVID or common cold

It reports that provinces like Henan, Gansu, Qinghai and Yunnan have already seen infections peak.

Other experts predict over 1 million will die from the disease this year, news agency Reuters has reported.

BF.7, a sub variant of Omicron-the dominant strain of the coronavirus circulating globally right now, is responsible for the COVID surge in China currently, experts have said.

The BF.7 sub variant, one of the latest in the Omicron family which already has a superior transmission rate than its ancestors, has a higher transmission rate than the other sub variants of Omicron.

Soon after China withdrew the zero COVID policy the cases, driven by BF.7, have risen exponentially.

The prediction model estimates an increase in demand for intensive care beds. “Some provinces, such as Hubei and Henan, could see patient demand for intensive care beds being six times hospital capacity," it has forecasted.

It also says that many patients who might have a chance to recover may succumb to the infection due to lack of hospital care. “Our forecast estimates a significant burden on China’s healthcare system for the next fortnight and it is likely that many treatable patients could die due to overcrowded hospitals and lack of care," it predicts.

It is because of the newer variants which have stronger infection ability and higher transmission rate.

According to Beijing-based expert Li Tongzeng, the BF.7 Omicron sub-variants have the "strongest infection ability" so far and pose a risk of "hidden spread".

Another Omicron sub variant, which is a recombinant variant of two Omicron sub lineages, is also a matter of concern right now. The XBB.1.5 is said to be the most transmissible variant of the Omicron until now.

In view of the infection ability of the viruses, unchecked spread of the infection can infect masses within no time; this would also create a conducive environment for the emergence of newer variants.

So far there is no evidence that newer COVID variants lead to newer symptoms.

Currently the symptoms seen in COVID infected individuals is similar to the symptoms seen in infections caused by earlier variants.

Though the prevalence of the symptoms have changed during the waves of infection, in total the nature and the kind of symptoms have remained the same.

The common symptoms of COVID which should not be ignored are: runny nose, sore throat, blocked nose, sneezing, cough, hoarse voice, headache, muscle pain, muscle ache and altered sense of smell.

In view of the emerging COVID variants, anti-COVID practices like wearing masks, keeping hands sanitized are still considered to be relevant.

Health experts have said that following hygiene practices helps control the spread of the infection to a large extent.

Vaccination is also credited for developing the immunity of people.