NEW DELHI:
Trinamool Congress is staring at what could become the biggest rupture in its 28-year history. Just weeks after suffering a bruising defeat in West Bengal,
Mamata Banerjee's party now finds itself battling a full-fledged internal uprising that threatens not only its influence in the state but could hand the ruling
NDA an easier run in Parliament.
The evolving situation inside TMC goes beyond the usual post-election blame game. It has developed into an open challenge to Mamata's authority by a major section of leaders who until recently formed the backbone of the party's parliamentary line-up.
The immediate question confronting the political establishment is no longer whether the Trinamool Congress can survive the rebellion. The bigger question is whether the upheaval in Didi's camp could hand Prime Minister Narendra Modi's NDA a major parliamentary advantage and bring the ruling alliance closer to the politically significant two-thirds majority mark in the Lok Sabha.
For the BJP, the stakes are enormous.
A stronger NDA would make it easier for the government to navigate contentious legislative battles and push reforms that have remained politically difficult despite the alliance's comfortable majority.
Among the measures often associated with such ambitions are One Nation, One Election and a likely Delimitation Bill, expected to dominate political debate in Monsoon Session, starting July 21.
The opposition put up a confident demonstration with its ability to coordinate during the Budget Session, where the INDIA bloc managed to exert pressure on the ruling side, preventing Centre from moving forward on Delimitation Bill.
A weakened opposition and a strengthened NDA would significantly alter that equation.
From Bengal to Delhi
The roots of the rebellion lie in the dramatic verdict delivered by Bengal voters in May.
For the first time in years, the aura of invincibility surrounding Mamata Banerjee suffered a major dent. The Trinamool Congress, which had dominated Bengal politics for a decade and a half, saw its numbers collapse.
Yet the real blow came from elsewhere.
As counting progressed, attention remained fixed on Bhabanipur, Mamata Banerjee's political fortress and the constituency most closely associated with her rise to power. By evening, however, it became clear that her former lieutenant-turned-bitter rival Suvendu Adhikari had once again defeated her.
This time, the defeat came in Bhabanipur itself, unlike last time's Nandigram.
The loss stunned the party. The TMC's tally plunged from 215 seats in 2021 to just 80, leaving the leadership struggling to process one of the most severe electoral setbacks in its history.
Even before the dust settled, a second crisis emerged.
First signs of revolt
The first signs of rebellion surfaced when Ritabrata Banerjee openly staked claim to the position of leader of opposition in the Bengal assembly.
The move triggered immediate disciplinary action.
Abhishek Banerjee, taking no time in branding him a "traitor" and the party expelled him. But the decision failed to contain the dissent.
Instead, the rebellion expanded.
Ritabrata managed to rally around 50 MLAs, creating the first major challenge to Didi's influence and power within the party after the election defeat.
What initially appeared to be a state-level power struggle soon began spreading beyond Bengal.
The anti-Didi sentiment gradually travelled from Kolkata to Delhi.
Soon, attention shifted to TMC parliamentarians.
MPs break ranks
The most dramatic development came when rebel leader Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar signalled that a large section of TMC MPs are prepared to part ways with the leadership.
The former women's wing chief, who recently resigned from her organisational position, emerged as the face of the parliamentary rebellion.
According to the rebel camp, at least 20 of TMC's 28 Lok Sabha MPs are backing the move.
If the claim holds, the rebels would comfortably cross the two-thirds threshold required under anti-defection provisions.
That number is politically critical.
A faction needs the support of at least two-thirds of a legislature party to seek protection from disqualification under anti-defection rules.
In the TMC's case, 19 MPs would be sufficient.
The rebels insist they are not planning to formally join the BJP.
"We will not join BJP. We will support NDA," said Ghosh Dastidar.
The declaration instantly transformed a Bengal-centric political crisis into a national story.
A letter carrying the signatures of rebel MPs was reportedly submitted to the Speaker's office, although no formal acknowledgement has yet been made public.
The rebellion then moved into the open.
NDA gains?
Soon after the letter surfaced, several rebel MPs gathered at Union minister Bhupendra Yadav's residence in Delhi.
Bengal chief minister Suvendu Adhikari also met members of the rebel camp.
The meetings took place on the very day Mamata was urging opposition parties at an INDIA bloc meeting to remain united against the BJP.
Sources said she accused the BJP of actively attempting to split her party.
For the NDA, the numbers are worth watching closely.
The alliance currently enjoys a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha but remains short of the politically significant two-thirds mark.
Support from a large TMC breakaway faction could push the alliance beyond the 300-seat threshold and provide additional comfort during crucial legislative battles.
The development would also come on top of recent gains made elsewhere.
Only weeks ago, another opposition formation, the Aam Aadmi Party, witnessed internal turmoil that ultimately benefited the BJP in Parliament.
The TMC revolt, however, would be on an altogether different scale.
Didi camp strikes back
The Mamata camp has rejected the rebels' claims and accused them of serving the BJP's interests.
Party MP and Didi loyalist Kalyan Banerjee emerged as one of the strongest voices defending the leadership.
Addressing a presser on Tuesday, he accused the dissidents of betraying Mamata Banerjee and questioned whether they possessed enough numbers to survive anti-defection scrutiny.
Calling them "desperate" and "gaddar", he alleged that the BJP was attempting to weaken the TMC from within.
In a pointed attack on the BJP, Kalyan Banerjee declared, "You (BJP) have the CM, ED, CBI and other powers, but I have 'Maa, Maati, Maanush', my party, my party workers, and the people of West Bengal."
The press conference reflected the growing anxiety within the party.
For a leadership already dealing with electoral defeat, the prospect of a parliamentary split represents an even greater threat.
Kirti Azad's challenge
Standing alongside Kalyan Banerjee was fellow MP and party colleague Kirti Azad, who delivered an equally sharp message to the rebels.
Questioning their political morality, he said: "Through the Trinamool Congress, the party of Maa, Mati, Manush, with Didi's blessings and the support and guidance of Abhishek, all 29 of our MPs were elected. I want to ask these 'traitors'... if you were facing problems and grievances, why did you express them only after the election? You should have raised those concerns before the election. After the polls, numerous allegations were made. Subhendu Shekhar made allegations and then resigned. Whether those allegations were right or wrong is a separate matter. But at least he demonstrated a sense of political ethics. He resigned from the party he belonged to, gave up the Rajya Sabha membership he held under that party's symbol, and stepped down."
Azad then directly challenged the "traitors".
"If you also have political ethics, then resign as well and contest elections on a BJP ticket. If you have even a little self-respect, morality, and propriety, then stand up and openly declare that you are no longer with the Trinamool Congress."
He further warned that the party would continue backing its cadre in constituencies represented by rebel MPs.
"And if Trinamool workers are attacked in your constituency, then under Kalyan (Banerjee) Da's leadership, we will go there and stand with them, because we do not betray our own people."
Azad also argued that the party's defeat was the result of a larger anti-TMC coalition.
"And at a time like this, when we were made to lose, let me be clear... we did not lose in Bengal on our own. We were defeated through a collective effort by everyone coming together against us."
Rebels defiant
The rebel camp, however, shows no sign of retreat.
Responding to attacks from the leadership, Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar struck a defiant tone.
"Mera sar katega lekin jhukega nahi... Maine bohot seh liya... I did not come here after Mamata Banerjee became chief minister in 2011; I have been fighting here for 40 years. And as I said, the words of such people have absolutely no effect on me."
She also attempted to frame the rebellion as a movement driven by larger national concerns.
"We will find out what happens later. For now, isn't it enough that we want to work for Bengal, for the country, and to keep India secure? This is a crucial issue. The issue of the nation is paramount to us."
What next?
Whether the rebels ultimately clear legal hurdles and sustain their numbers remains to be seen.
What is already clear is that TMC is facing the most serious internal challenge since its formation in 1998.
For Mamata, the battle is about preserving control over a party she built from scratch and led to power.
For the rebels, it is a fight over the future direction of the organisation.
For the BJP and the NDA, however, the rebellion offers something else entirely, an opportunity.
An opportunity to further weaken one of the country's most influential opposition parties and move closer to a parliamentary strength that could make the path easier for some of its biggest legislative ambitions.
The Bengal verdict may have removed Mamata from power. The rebellion that followed could end up reshaping the numbers game in New Delhi.
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