Why India can’t ditch China

Despite some progress on the border dispute, China and India remain very much at odds.

Beijing’s assertiveness in the Himalayas has pushed New Delhi closer toward the United States and Europe, and there are few signs that the two Asian powers can mend their strained relationship.

As they grow, India and China both seek to assert their influence on the global stage.

What’s the status quo of the India-China relationship? What tensions exist? How bad is the situation at the border? Is cooperation at all possible with China? And what’s the bigger picture here? These are the core questions.

What is the status quo of the India China relationship?

India-China relations have recently been described as a mix of cooperation and competition, with both nations expected to be superpowers by 2050. Having said that, India-China relations have a long and complex history, marked by both cooperation and conflict.

For starters, the two countries share a 3,500-kilometer border, as well as a shared cultural and religious heritage. Despite this, there have been several instances of conflict and tensions over the last few decades, including the 1962 Sino-Indian War and border clashes that occurred as recently as 2021 and continue to this day.

With all of this in mind, the relationship between India and China has been marked by a growing level of economic cooperation, which has been fueled in large part by their growing trade relationship. India is one of China's most important trading partners, and the two countries have been working to strengthen their economic ties, including through joint ventures and investments in each other's economies.

Key tensions between India and China?

Despite growing economic cooperation, India and China have also been geopolitical rivals. Both countries are attempting to assert their global influence, and they have competing interests in a number of regions, including the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean.

The border dispute between India and China is a major source of contention. For decades, the two countries have been in talks to settle the dispute, but no agreement has been reached. The dispute has caused several skirmishes and incidents, and it continues to be a major source of tension between the two countries.

Another source of contention between India and China is their rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region. India has sought to increase its regional influence, and it has formed alliances with several countries in the region, including Japan and Australia. China, on the other hand, has been attempting to assert its regional dominance by increasing its military and economic presence in the South China Sea.

What about border clashes?

"India's territorial integrity is non-negotiable," said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, "and we will take all necessary measures to protect our borders."

Despite military-level talks, tensions remain high. For the first time in over a year, troops clashed in December 2022. It happened near the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh, India's easternmost state.

Since a major clash in June 2020, de-escalation efforts have been underway. The battle in Galwan Valley, fought with sticks and clubs rather than guns, was the first fatal clash between the two sides since 1975.

At least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers were killed.

Another clash in January 2021 resulted in casualties on both sides. It happened close to Sikkim, between Bhutan and Nepal.

China accused India of firing shots at its troops in September 2021. China was accused by India of firing into the air. If true, it would be the first time shots were fired at the border in 45 years.

An agreement signed in 1996 prohibited the use of firearms and explosives near the border. Both countries agreed to withdraw from a disputed western Himalayan border area the same month.

Is cooperation possible?

The answer is still unknown, but India and China HAVE been attempting to find areas of cooperation. For example, the two countries have collaborated on climate change and have both signed on to the Paris Agreement.

They have also worked to address regional and global security issues such as terrorism and the spread of weapons of mass destruction. The thing to keep an eye on is that simmering tensions carry the risk of escalation, which can be disastrous given that both sides are established nuclear powers.

There would also be economic consequences because China is India's largest trading partner. Growing political tension has strained ties between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, mirroring the military standoff.

Even with the conflicts in mind, Indian Foreign Minister Dr S Jaishankar has stated that some level of cooperation is still required.

What's the bigger picture?

The two countries have only fought one war, in 1962, when India was humiliated. However, simmering border tensions carry the risk of escalation, which can be disastrous given that both sides are established nuclear powers.

There would also be economic consequences because China is India's largest trading partner. Growing political tension has strained ties between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, mirroring the military standoff.

According to observers, talks are the only way forward because both countries have a lot to lose.