Why Ajit Pawar's timing is perfect for BJP, not Opposition

It was in the works for some time and finally happened on July 2. Ajit Pawar’s decision to join hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Maharashtra and become the deputy chief minister for the third time since November 2019 (and twice before — making it a record of sorts) comes as a shot in the arm for the ruling party.What makes the development more reassuring for the BJP is the decision of several ‘real’ Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leaders to head to ‘safer’ pastures.Among those who crossed over, Sharad Pawar would be particularly peeved with Praful Patel, a long-time loyalist. Barely three weeks ago, Pawar Sr appointed him as one of the two working presidents of the NCP in a tactic to marginalise his nephew. While being part of the uncle’s ploy, Patel was simultaneously in league with the nephew, waiting to strike the right bargain with the BJP. medium101480173New examples of cloak-and-dagger operations can be cited from Maharashtra’s unethical and immoral sequence of events since November 2019. A voter’s quip was laced with sarcasm: For one vote, people have three chief ministers and four deputy chief ministers. But that’s realpolitik, and the BJP has worsted the Opposition.The timing is right for the BJP because the efforts of more than a dozen Opposition parties to make a common cause against it were gathering strength. But with this move, the ruling party has delivered a telling blow to such aspirations. After the rejigging of political equations in Maharashtra, which elects the second-largest contingent to the Lok Sabha, the Opposition does not appear as surefooted.From the perspective of national optics, Opposition parties will have to ensure that the next meeting is not merely held as scheduled, but progress is made on untangling the knotty issue of overlapping political presence in several states.An uneasy allianceThe Congress gaining confidence after the victory in Karnataka and the enhanced stature of Rahul Gandhi has the potential to unnerve other Opposition parties operating in a competitive space. Assembly polls in three crucial heartland states (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh), besides Telangana and Mizoram, will determine the extent to which one-on-one contests are maximised.How the Congress accommodates the fears of other parties of being overrun is crucial because it remains the party with the largest footprint. Other parties cannot be over-ambitious and irrational while expanding their presence.There are also several tricky policy matters on which parties must resolve their discordance. This is particularly true of the Delhi services ordinance and the Uniform Civil Code. Divergences can be sidestepped only if headway is made on appointing a convenor for the alliance and forming a committee to prepare a common minimum programme. medium101480187The Maharashtra crossover still comes at an appropriate moment for the BJP because it is days before the much anticipated reshuffling of the council of ministers by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the upcoming monsoon session of Parliament, at possibly the newly constructed building. Each of these carries different messages.Since its re-election in 2019, the BJP subconsciously exhibited symptoms of a party that did not feel the need for allies. Consequently, one of its oldest partners, the Akali Dal, quit the Union government.Political turbulence in Maharashtra, too, had its genesis in the BJP’s inability to manage the aspirations of its oldest ally, the Shiv Sena.In the event of representatives of other parties being invited to the council of ministers, the BJP would have almost completed widening its social and political coalition before the 2024 polls.These developments before the monsoon session will enable it to face the expected Opposition onslaught with greater confidence. Getting the new Parliament building functional will be an added ‘achievement’ to showcase.A tricky challengeAfter initial enthusiasm, the Maharashtra coalition may well turn fractious. Ensuring harmonious relations with, and between, its two partners is an uphill task. This may well not be the last political equation in the state. The challenge immediately is to fulfil the ambitions of the members of Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde faction.The unwieldy coalition comprises individuals and groups from diverse political and social backgrounds, many antagonistic to one another for long. From a problem of little, the BJP is overnight saddled with one of plenty.Things will not get easier as the two breakaway groups will have to contest for terrain with respective ‘original’ leaders. Pawar Sr declared he would take the battle to the people’s court and is not looking at numbers in the legislature party his nephew has taken along. Likewise, Uddhav Thackeray too looks for redemption among voters.Watch: Opposition parties postpone meeting medium nocaption101446657The BJP will remain mindful of legal complications arising over the status of Shinde faction legislators. The Supreme Court, in its judgment in May, gave primacy to the political party over its legislative wing, and this will apply to the battle for the NCP, too — its name and election symbol.In eight months, India will be in the midst of possibly the most important election of the 21st century. The BJP has drawn up its electoral charter and, with the Maharashtra developments, is close to finalising alliances in several states.The Opposition made headway in making the polls a more keenly contested one than in 2019. The parties have little option now but to redouble efforts. Else, the contest will be as good as over before the first vote is cast.Lead illustration: R Prasad