Why 'aloo, tamatar' is a bigger threat to Imran than Pak politics

Pakistan is battling record inflation. With the price of tomatoes per kilo oscillating between Rs120 and Rs160, and a litre of milk hovering close to Rs200, the common man today is struggling to make ends meet.It doesn’t help that Prime Minister Imran Khan — who is facing a no-confidence motion on March 27 for mismanaging the economy — is doing little to assuage people’s concerns. Pakistan’s consumer price inflation has been rising, and prices of essential goods have been going up dramatically. Coupled with rising unemployment, the country is going through hard times.Last week, during a political rally in Hafizabad city in Punjab province, Khan stirred controversy by stating that he did not join politics to check the prices of “aloo and tamatar” as he attacked the Opposition. (In the 342-member National Assembly, the Opposition needs 172 votes to remove the prime minister.) Khan would do well to study Indian contemporary history, where governments have been brought down because of rising onion prices. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r But away from the political slugfest, it’s the prices of aloo and tamatar that’s causing great distress among the people. For instance, take the case of Faheem Mughal, a journalist who became a rickshaw driver to get by. Unable to pay off a debt of Rs60,000, let alone meet day-to-day expenses, the father of five children hanged himself last November, a few months after he was fired from his media job.The news was quickly followed by that of Zuhair-ul-Hassan Abidi, a 28-year-old graduate, who jumped to death from the third floor of a popular shopping mall in Karachi, after not being able to find employment. As visuals of Abidi’s horrific death began to circulate on social media, one thing has become clear — the state has been overlooking the strife in the country, which has been exacerbated by inflation and unemployment.medium nocaption905948991. The tragic self-destruction of Imran Khan2. My prediction of Imran being Pak's Trump is coming true'3. Imran Khan’s fall from grace is his own fault4. How Imran has come so close to losing power5. 5 reasons why PTI and Imran failedmedium nocaption90594926When Khan came to power in 2018, he promised “tabdeeli”, but three years on, nothing indicates the change he vowed to deliver.Pakistan’s general inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) clocked in at a 24-month peak of 13% in January as prices of almost all commodities and utilities maintained a growing trend. The sectors that posted double-digit growth in prices when compared to the same month of last year included perishable and non-perishable food items, energy, transportation, clothing and health. This is the highest CPI inflation since January 2020 when it was 14.6%. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r “The two key drivers of unprecedented inflation are lack of focus on agricultural-sector reforms and reliance on imported energy,” says Uzair Younus, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council, a think tank based in Washington, DC. “A dysfunctional agri sector means that supply-side shocks in food are the norm, not the exception. This issue is made worse by the government’s intervention in markets such as wheat and sugar, which leads to commodity sector debt and price distortions.”Recently, Khan hiked the prices of petrol and diesel, leading to a further escalation of agricultural products due to a rise in transportation costs. “Imported energy,” adds Younus, “causes inflation due to rising energy prices, which increases production and transportation costs, and also weakens the currency, which has a second-degree inflationary impact across the economy.” medium90268113Ariba Shahid, a business and economy reporter, feels that the country will have a tough time capping its high inflation. “At first, it went up because of the devaluation of the rupee, which made imports more expensive. There was also corruption- and hoarding-induced supply shortages,” she says. “The second wave of inflation came in when there was monetary stimulus, which meant an increased demand in the economy. That, however, has been dealt with. The inflation we are seeing right now is due to international commodity prices. Pakistan’s domestic policy has little to do with it other than the impact of the depreciation of the rupee against the greenback.”Many experts feel that the prices are sticky and less likely to fall even when inputs become cheaper. This has to do with menu costs and margins. Therefore, the impact of inflation lives on and continues to erode purchasing power.For a vast majority, this purchasing power has not only dwindled but almost hit rock bottom, with low-income families finding it almost impossible to tackle the “mehngai ka jin”. medium90268139Forty-year-old Ghazala, whose husband Haroon is recovering from colon cancer, has become the sole breadwinner in her family of seven. With mounting costs because of her husband’s illness and her sons being unable to find employment, her below minimum wages for part time work make it impossible for her to find a balance between paying the monthly rent and providing one square meal to each family member.“I used to make Rs15,000 every month collectively from two jobs and I would just about scrape by,” she says. “The current situation has made it difficult for me to even buy five kilos of flour on some days. We are a large family and there are many mouths to feed; we often go without food.”medium nocaption905950321. How Imran Khan has turned average Pakistani into a loser2. Why Pakistan is a difficult country to be a prime minister3. Why Imran's replacement won't have it easy toomedium nocaption90595049So, what does weak domestic policies, coupled with global economic factors, in a world just beginning to recover from Covid, mean for Pakistan given the next general elections are in 2023?“This will likely increase unemployment and poverty rates,” says Amina Askari, senior programme manager, Pakistan Field Support Services Project. “Unless the government actively focuses on widening the tax net and increasing industrialisation long term, the effects of the current fallout on Pakistan’s economy will be severe and close to irreversible in the short term. The current situation has evidently had a significant impact on the approval ratings of the PM and his government, but whether this has an impact during the election depends on other factors.”The writer is a freelance journalist based in Karachi