Why EPS-OPS war is replay of Jaya vs Janaki of the 80s

In February 1989, after a battle for control of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) founded by MG Ramachandran (MGR), the J (J Jayalalithaa) and Ja (Janaki Ramachandran) factions merged and the party flag carried former Tamil Nadu chief minister CN Annadurai’s picture. But the developments that led to the historic high redefined AIADMK’s politics.Jayalalithaa, a popular actress then, had neither the support of the ministers and legislators nor the functionaries. Whereas Janaki enjoyed the ‘stature’ of being the wife of the most idolised matinee star-turned politician-turned chief minister and party sentiments seemed overwhelmingly in her favour.The current war for supremacy in the AIADMK is similar to the 1988 J-Ja battle. The Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) vs O Panneerselvam (OPS) struggle to capture power in the party is not likely to end soon. While winning over functionaries is imperative, gaining cadre support, sympathy and trust would be the final step to taking over the party reins and being crowned the king.Janaki may have won the first round. But what Jayalalithaa’s rivals overlooked was her celluloid charisma — the mass appeal and the support she had from the party rank and file. medium92825507In the January 1989 assembly election, the DMK led by M Karunanidhi won, but it was a triumph for Jayalalithaa too. Twenty-six of her supporters scored victories and so did Jayalalithaa, from her Bodinayakanur seat (Theni district) in the rooster symbol. The Janaki faction that contested in the two doves symbol was wiped out, managing just two seats.Janaki lost and Jayalalithaa won the party and the symbol that had been frozen by an order of then chief election commissioner RVS Peri Sastri.A familiar taleCut to 2022. The ongoing fight for the AIADMK between Palaniswami, 68, and Panneerselvam, 71, has elements similar to the 1989 J-Ja battle.On July 11, AIADMK’s supreme body — the general council — installed EPS as the party’s interim general secretary. EPS, who has managed to lure most of the seniors to his side, has won the first round. But the second round could prove crucial — an election, with or without the party name or symbol, and the twists and turns the battle may take in the Election Commission (EC) arena could define their hold over the party.Besides the party name and symbol, the bylaws originally scripted by MGR and amended a few times subsequently could also define the EPS vs OPS contest. medium92829551It was after Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016 that a new fight began to wrest control of the party. This one between Jayalalithaa’s friend VK Sasikala, her nephew TTV Dhinakaran and EPS on one side and then Tamil Nadu chief minister OPS, who authored a ‘dharmayudh’ after he was forced to step down as CM to make way for Sasikala, on the other.Sasikala, who was appointed AIADMK general secretary in 2016 after Jayalalithaa’s death, had made EPS the chief minister the same year. This triggered a split in the party. In 2017, the EPS and OPS factions merged.Eventually, Sasikala, who was incarcerated in February 2018 in the disproportionate wealth case and sent to a Bengaluru prison, and Dhinakaran, who later floated his own party, were knocked out of the ring. EPS, as CM, and OPS as the ‘wronged’ one, took centre stage. medium92825614With the EC freezing the symbol again in March 2017 ahead of the RK Nagar bypoll, there was a wild scramble by the two leaders to prove their might. They deployed their loyalists to prepare affidavits and get them signed by party members. They sent truckloads of affidavits of functionaries and party cadres to the EC headquarters in New Delhi to prove their strength in the organisation before chief election commissioner Nasim Zaidi, who served between April 2015 and July 2017. Realising they were no mass leaders, the two made up and launched an uneasy chapter in dual leadership.In most such disputes, the EC bases its decision on a clear majority enjoyed by a faction among the party general council, executive committee members, office-bearers, legislators, as well as in the organisational structure, said Zaidi.Faced with the daunting task of assessing the organisational strength and which faction has majority support, the EC goes with testing majority among elected members of Parliament and members of legislative assembly as well.In the succession war that wracked the Samajwadi Party in 2017, such a test of majority tilted the scales in favour of Akhilesh Yadav and helped him oust his father Mulayam Singh Yadav from the party he founded in 1992. medium92825592Proof of popularity“Right now, it looks like a majority of cadres are with EPS. But only the office-bearers are with him. Both EPS and OPS have no direct cadre attachment like MGR or Jayalalithaa. To prove they do, they have to face an election. A categorical reiteration can only be the 2026 assembly election and to an extent the 2024 Lok Sabha election,” says senior Congress leader S Thirunavukkarasar, who was formerly with the AIADMK. He was among the handful who threw their weight behind Jayalalithaa when the party split in 1988.The 2024 general election can also be an early litmus test for the two leaders. The fight, though, has to go beyondcaste and region, says Thirunavukkarasar. While it is imperative for EPS to stand up to the BJP to win over cadres’ hearts, he could also earn the respect of his ally, seemingly tilting towards OPS.The EPS vs OPS battle isn’t more bitter than it was in 2017 nor any less vindictive, vengeful or acrimonious. But the fight for the AIADMK between them playing out now has never been more intense in the courts.It is yet to pick up heat before the EC. A symbol is needed only at the time of election, for propagation. And a dispute over symbols would arise only when the rival walks out of the party or is expelled. “We have to wait and see if such a situation is precipitated,” says former chief election commissioner N Gopalasami. medium92824537Why the split in AIADMK may give BJP a headacheHow EPS toppled OPS and is AIADMK split certain?The MGR-Karuna tussle and the rise of Jayalalithaa medium92824544