Ukraine crisis: Why India is walking tightrope amid calls for Russia's isolation

NEW DELHI:

Russia

's all-out invasion of Ukraine has prompted a wave of sanctions from all over the world with global leaders seeking to ramp up pressure on the Kremlin.

On Friday, US President Joe Biden extended America's measures against Russia to include sanctions on President Vladimir Putin and his foreign minister

Sergei Lavrov

.

But the growing Western backlash at Russia's action in Ukraine has left India in a rather precarious position.



Brothers in 'arms'
As the

Ukraine crisis

deepens, the real problem for India is how it navigates international sanctions against Russia.

India has historically close ties with Moscow and is a major purchaser of Russian weapons. Hence, it has refrained from joining the sanctions thus far.



On Friday, India had also abstained during a UN Security Council vote over a resolution stating that the group of countries "deplores in the strongest terms" Russia's "aggression" against Ukraine. It would have demanded the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops.

TOI Edit: Dependency on Russian arms no longer viable
New Delhi understands that US sanctions on Russia are likely to have severe implications for India’s defence supplies.



According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) database, Russia has been the top weapons supplier to India in the last three decades



SIPRI data shows that India's dependence on Russian arms have been on a decline in the last few years.

This is largely due to India's decision to broad-base its arms imports, increasingly turning to the US, France and Israel for weapons over the last 15 years.

However, over 60% of the weapons systems used by the 1.5 million strong Indian armed forces are still of Russian-origin.



Data shows that Russia accounted for almost half of India's arms imports between 2016 and 2020.

Over 90% of the Indian Army’s 3,000-plus main battle tanks are Russian T-72 and T-90S. India was also in advanced talks to procure another 464 Russian T-90MS tanks.



Thus, despite India turning to different suppliers, Russian platforms have remained New Delhi's preferred choice. This is due to factors like price competitiveness, relatively generous technology transfers and familiarity.



Walking the tightrope
According to experts, India's decision to abstain from voting at UNSC does not mean support for Moscow but reflects New Delhi's reliance on its Cold War ally for energy, weapons and support in conflicts with neighbors.

In the past, India has depended on Soviet support and its veto power in the Security Council over the Kashmir issue with Pakistan.



The war in Ukraine has also added to challenges India is facing with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Both Pakistan and China are seen to be on the Russian side, and India believes Moscow has leverage to change Beijing's hard stance on the border issue.

C Raja Mohan, a senior fellow with the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Associated Press that the problem was India's continued reliance on Russian weapons.

"This is not just an abstract question. But the fact is that India is in the middle of a war with China. India is locked in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with China over a disputed frontier," he said.

India's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems, which it considers to be critical in countering China, could also prove to be an irritant in India-US ties.



"The problem for India has just begun. The urgent need for it is to break out of dependence on the Russian weapons," Raja Mohan said.

Noor Ahmed Baba, a political scientist, told Associated Press that Western countries will be unhappy with India, but they probably can't afford to entirely alienate New Delhi.



"After all, countries balance principles with real politicking and diplomacy," he said. "It's not only India's advantage to be with the West, but they also need India."

(With inputs from agencies)