Sickle hammered, left homeless

NEW DELHI: The ouster of the two term CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front govt in Kerala by the Congress led UDF marks the first time since 1977 that no state in India will have a communist govt. The loss in this critical contest presents before the Left its biggest challenge of continuing to be relevant at the national level in the face of declining influence in election after election.

However, despite the setback, the left’s liberal-progressive narrative still appeals to a rights-based framework and is seen spearheading agenda-setting on issues ranging from environment, livelihoods of marginalised communities to gender and labour issues among others.

How far the left is able to reinforce itself among its core support groups is going to be critical. Infact when in Bihar assembly polls last year CPI(ML) faced a severe setback plummeting from 12 seats to a mere two, it brought into focus that though the left traces its beginnings to mass movements and grassroots mobilisation, it is increasingly unable to retain its strongholds signalling the need to reinvent its outreach and reconnect with its core support base.

The defeat in Kerala also raises the possibility of the left losing some heft in asserting itself in the opposition's INDIA bloc. There is speculation that the poll outcome is expected to pave the way for some sort of realignment within the bloc itself with two key allies TMC and DMK ousted from power in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

While BJP remains the key target of the INDIA bloc, whether new entrant TVK will be part of the alliance or not will also be a factor in how the power equations within the alliance - formed to challenge the BJP led NDA in Lok Sabha elections 2024 - take shape.

In Kerala, stakes were high for the LDF right from the outset both from anti-incumbency and a poll that was seen as a referendum on Pinarayi Vijayan. Vijayan created history in 2021 as the first CM in the state to be re-elected after a full five-year term. Earlier to that, the state has had a four-decade-old tradition of alternating govts.

In a high - pitched battle with a resurgent Congress led UDF, both sides crossed swords and engage in scathing attacks. BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s attempts to expand its footprint beyond traditional pockets also played a role in pushing the LDF to the ropes.

In West Bengal, the CPI(M) which once led govt in the state for 34 years, was ahead in just one seat till late evening. In Assam, where the left parties - CPI(M), CPI and CPI(ML) fought as part of the Congress-led alliance, failed to open their account. In Tamil Nadu, where the left parties fought as part of the DMK-led alliance, they looked set to win four seats till late in the evening.

Reflecting on the polls results, CPI(M) general secretary on behalf of the Polit Bureau of the party said, “the two major features of the assembly election results are the serious setback to the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala and the victory of the BJP in West Bengal.”

Alleging that in West Bengal, the BJP benefited from several factors, including the strong anti-incumbency against the “corrupt” TMC govt, Baby said, “even in such a polarised situation, the left could marginally improve its performance.”

Refusing to see the poll outcome as a reflection on the growing irrelevance of Left, Baby agreed that despite having an organisational presence, impact was not getting converted to support in the electoral arena. He claimed that the left was still at the forefront in raising issues of the marginalised and “in the upcoming Polit Bureau and Central Committee meetings they will introspect on the reasons that led to the defeat of the LDF in Kerala and take corrective measures”.