Why India needs a new Nepal strategy now

The recently concluded elections in Nepal threw up a fractured verdict with a ‘badly hung Parliament’ at the Centre and hung assemblies in all seven federal provinces. Although the two largest parties – Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN (UML) – had envisaged prior to the polls that they would not fare well in the elections without alliances with smaller parties, the final result was neither the outcome nor the victory that they were waiting for. Death of political principles Well short of a majority in the 275-member Lower House, both were compelled to lure the Maoists, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), royalist Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and the Madhes-based parties. NC under Sher Bahadur Deuba emerged as the single-largest party but in the past week of frantic bargaining, its leadership was unable to decide which one is worse – to succumb to the Maoist pressure of giving up the constitutional positions of President, Vice-President, and House Speaker or yield the prime ministerial position itself to Maoist chairman Prachanda. Correctly gauging the scenario that the NC-Maoist alliance was being torn apart by differences, the wily chairman of CPN (UML) KP Oli decided to offer the Maoists the PM’s position, keeping the position of President for his own party. Yet again, Nepal will have both the head of state and government with communist ideology.But this time what has surprised many is the rapidity of the shrinking of political ideology, total absence of principles, and the burial of past differences within a few hours on the temptation of ministerial berths. A motley cabinet Just a year ago, Prachanda was vehemently against Oli for dissolving the House and announcing fresh elections, even shaking hands with Deuba and NC. Today, he has broken ties with NC and tied up with Oli. It was under Prachanda’s leadership that the Maoists waged a violent insurgency during 1996-2006 to oust the Hindu monarchy from the country. But RPP, with 14 MPs and espousing the cause of restoration of monarchy, makes it crucial for Prachanda to reach the magic figure of 138. The new entrant RSP, led by charismatic TV personality Ravi Lamichhane with the powerful home ministry under its wings, will hopefully bring in a new style of functioning and boost the morale of the Nepal Police, long a victim of meddling and interference by the political leadership. NC became a victim of its own rigmarole and indecision. Deuba could not draw right conclusions from the poll results which may even result in the party losing the governments in all the provinces too. As the largest opposition party now, it does have leverages to expose the failures of the diabolical alliance of the communist-royalists, federal-anti-federal forces. But its current leadership needs energy and fresh blood to mount a formidable pressure on the new Prachanda-led government. Landscape of uncertainty It is obvious that Nepal has entered a new phase of political uncertainty. All vital institutions including the judiciary are plagued by gross politicisation with irreparable damage already done to their credibility.Election results have also shown that young Nepal is very upset with the old, tired leaders and their corrupt practices, giving opportunity to young YouTubers, TikTok stars and social media influencers to win a sizable number of seats.New PM Prachanda will have to walk the tightrope by constantly fearing the possibility of losing the thin majority he has in the House.The Supreme Court verdict of July 2021, which bars the incumbent PM from dissolving the House for fresh polls and mandates the head of state to keep exploring alternatives once a coalition falls, makes the next crisis more certain in Nepal.Nepal has had six Constitutions in the last six decades. Sadly, the present one enacted in 2015 has already shown signs of aging and needs a sincere revision. US-China-India powerplay The rapidly changing political scenario in Nepal is happening at a time of enormous flux in US-China and India-China relations, making Nepal a boxing ring of competing powers. India must take these developments seriously and comprehensively review its Nepal policy, especially framed post-2006. Completely new faces have now entered the political realm. Indian political leadership should not have any qualms, therefore, of talking to all sides of Nepal’s political pillars – the left, right and centre. Otherwise, the trajectory of Indo-Nepal ties will now move in an unpredictable path. The writer is director, Centre for South Asian Studies (CSAS), Kathmandu