Maharashtra & beyond

By-elections are normally about local factors. On the whole they favour the ruling party in the state. It’s when the results are different that they attract attention. There are several takeaways from the just-concluded bypolls to 30 state assemblies and three Lok Sabha constituencies in 13 states. The rise of Congress in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka at the cost of incumbent BJP has naturally cheered up Congress and pressed panic buttons in BJP. But BJP and its allies have swept in Assam and the Northeast of India. Elections in India are mostly about caste and community. But these bypolls have underscored another emerging reality – that polls in India are becoming as much about “leadership” as anything else. Maharashtra is a good example. Shiv Sena’s first Lok Sabha win outside Maharashtra, in Dadra Nagar Haveli, is about leadership. From the moment the previous winner died in mysterious circumstances earlier this year, Uddhav Thackeray’s party snapped up his widow, stood by her side solidly and took her to victory. Surprisingly, Uddhav’s understated leadership style has mostly gone down well with people in Maharashtra. One of the reasons for the MVA coalition lasting so long – it is now half way into its term – is that Uddhav has burnt his boats with BJP. Such is the bitterness generated between him and BJP, that for now he is not prepared to look at BJP as an option. Instead, Uddhav and Sharad Pawar were together over Diwali in Baramati. Congress too has adjusted to the Sena, something that would have been unthinkable ten years ago. medium nocaption87514030 Bypolls in Maharashtra – Congress winning Deglur in Nanded and Sena in Dadra Nagar Haveli – are reportedly leading to a rethink amongst those who had left their party before 2019 to join BJP. Some it seems are “waiting in the wings” now for a ghar wapsi. The leadership factor is seen in many places. Mamata Banerjee has swept the bypolls in West Bengal, winning all the seats where elections were held. BJP lost even those seats it had won five months ago. Today the people of Bengal look at Mamata as their unchallenged leader. The same is true of BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma. He too has swept Assam, and the northeastern states (with BJP’s allies). Here is another strong leader, who like Mamata has risen because of the sheer dint of hard work over the last five years. He has worked not just in Assam but all over the Northeast. After the border clashes between Assam and Mizoram not long ago, there has been a rise of what is being described as a new “Assamese nationalism”, which has also been at work in the bypolls. Sarma has skilfully handled it and put it to use to his advantage. His challenge will lie in not allowing it to become divisive. So far sub-nationalism had swayed voters in other northeastern states. BJP’s tall leader Shivraj Chouhan has held his ground in Madhya Pradesh; so has Congress’s Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan with rebel Sachin Pilot visibly cooperating with the CM. With the exit of Lingayat strongman BS Yediyurappa, BJP has suffered in Karnataka. BSY’s message to the party high command is very clear: You can ignore me at your peril. He is setting the terms for getting back to the table in the assembly and Lok Sabha elections. This is also the message another strongman, in this case Congress’s BS Hooda in Haryana, has sent to his party high command. Surprisingly, the Congress candidate (not a Hooda choice) fared poorly in a state that has been the epicentre of the farmers’ movement with angry Jats moving away from BJP. Undoubtedly, Abhay Chautala of the INLD had the advantage of resigning in solidarity with farmers to be re-elected. But Congress had a good chance to win if it had put its best foot forward and moved unitedly. Therefore, it remains to be seen how Congress will do in Punjab without a tall leader like Amarinder Singh in the forthcoming elections in the state. BJP has fared poorly in Himachal Pradesh because of an ineffective and colourless CM. But it is surprising this should happen in BJP president JP Nadda and minister I&B Anurag Thakur’s state. And that the party should lose the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, which it had won handsomely only two years ago. It is hardly a secret that the frequent change of CMs by BJP in Uttarakhand – all unable to get their act together – is responsible for the loss of ground the party has suffered in the state. So, overall, if it is true that people are now looking for strong and credible leaders who they can rely on before they make their vote choices, this is going to be a factor parties will have to contend with in the coming months as the country gets ready to go to the polls in around a dozen states between now and 2024. As for 2024, BJP still has a huge advantage in the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who remains popular despite the growing dissatisfaction with his party. How to counter that challenge will be the opposition’s dilemma. For the moment, opposition parties are trying to expand their party base (such as Congress and RJD in Bihar going separately). The picture is unlikely to get clear till early 2024. As for BJP, while it does not have to worry about a national leader, it may need to revisit its policy towards allies. The writer is a political commentator