Little sign of anti-incumbency or voter fatigue, why Nitish Kumar endures in Bihar

MUZAFFARPUR: While predicting the outcome of elections is tricky, one trend stands out across constituencies in Bihar - there is little sign of anger or voter fatigue with Nitish Kumar's two decades in office. This is true even among sections of Muslims, a community traditionally opposed to BJP, the CM's primary ally in the state.

"Although I will vote for RJD, you won't find people speaking against Nitish even after four full terms," said Sabbu Mirza at Madarsa Chawk in Muzaffarpur's Kurhani constituency. "Nitish is not the leader of one caste. He has a mass base and that is his appeal," said his uncle Muhammad Amanullah, who is also a JD(U) post-holder at panchayat level. Numerically, Nitish's caste, Kurmis are around 3% of the state's population, much smaller than the over 14% Yadavs and around 18% Muslims. He is, however, popular among castes that are outside of politicised blocs perceived as committed to one party or the other, like 10% Hindu upper castes, over 4% Kushwaha, more than 5% Paswans, over 3% Musahars and 2.6% Mallahs.

"He is the leader of everyone else, and that's why I will vote for him and will try to convince others to do the same," added Amanullah. "Unlike Uttar Pradesh, Muslims in Bihar are much better off. There is no fear of lynching or bulldozers," he said. Both agreed Prashant Kishor will emerge as a serious contender in the next election. "Some people tried to damage the state's social fabric but Nitish managed to hold it together. Now people realise that Hindus and Muslims do business with each other. Market is a great equaliser and hunger ultimately overrides ideology," Sabbu Mirza concluded on a philosophical note. "The voter fatigue with Nitish was evident back in Feb when I visited the state. His health was under opposition scrutiny and Tejashwi appeared to be emerging as his successor in Mandal (OBC and EBC) politics," said senior journalist Ajeet Dwivedi, who has covered Bihar's politics for decades. "The new schemes, however, have turned the tide. Now, the anti-incumbency is invisible. Starting from pensions for widows, elderly, and differently abled, to doubling salaries for school night guards and PT teachers and giving Rs 10,000 to around a crore women, all this has helped him," he said. "The bar for governance was set so low in the Lalu years that even modest progress feels remarkable," he added.

"BJP needs him (Nitish) for his EBC and OBC votes," said Ashok Kumar Akela at Nur Mohammad Chak in nearby Mahua constituency. Akela runs a hatchery and writes plays that are staged in his village. "BJP's politics starts with Ali and ends at Bajrang Bali and, in Bihar, this mostly appeals to the upper caste voters. Among OBCs, EBCs and SC/STs, castes with significant populations have their own netas. Nitish is the head of numerically smaller castes and BJP can only get these votes if he leads the alliance," he said.

"Who wants to see Yadavs and what have we done?" said Dharamveer Kumar, himself a Yadav, who was sitting outside a restaurant in Mustafapur in Mahua constituency. It's a very difficult fight here, almost six-sided, but hopefully Yadavs and Muslims will pull it, and RJD will win, he said. Which side the numerically smaller castes would back was difficult to predict, he felt. "You know what an ex-CM (Lalu) said in an election speech. If I make the roads better, then people will die in accidents. If I give electricity, then people will die because of the current," said Arun Shahi in Minapur constituency, further north. "Sheohar is about 30km from here and it used to take five hours to reach, and now it takes less than an hour. Obviously, Nitish has made these roads."

Yet, he said he votes for Nitish only because of Modi. At Raghavpur in the same constituency, Shankar Sahani, who is from the fisherman caste, core base of Mukesh Sahani's VIP, said he would vote for Nitish. "He keeps his promise," he said. "I get the elderly pension and free electricity. I will vote for Nitish."

Probably, Nitish's political longevity lies in the approval of Shankar Sahani. It is a politics of modest gain and even more modest expectations as the bars were set quite low in the near 70 years (he didn't remember his exact age) that he had lived in his village. It seems that in Bihar even small but fulfilled promises are remembered longer than grand announcements and that is his appeal.


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