‘Karnataka elections won’t revive Rahul Gandhi’s fortunes’

Q: How do you evaluate the performance of the Basavaraj Bommai government?Bommai was a replacement of Yediyurappa and he came in around mid-2021. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was getting very uncomfortable with Yediyurappa and his style of politics and wanted to take control of the state unit. Yediyurappa ran the state unit of the party in his way for a long time. He never needed the high command or the central leaders to come and even campaign in the state for him to win. Yediyurappa had built the party on a very different kind of social engineering, which was not very familiar to leaders in Delhi. I've always called him a Mandal politician with a cover of Hindutva. He was extremely well connected with the grassroots. But, his social engineering had a limitation as both the times the party came to power in 2008 and 2018, they didn’t have a majority. I think the central leadership of the BJP thought this was the best they could do with his politics and it was time to try someone else. But, they did not want to take a risk, so they replaced Yediyurappa with another Lingayat, Bommai. medium99955744 Bommai came in and for the first 10 months played a hardcore Hindutva game. Hindutva in Karnataka is largely seen as being restricted to the coastal districts of the state. After Bommai came, the headlines were about hijab, halal and other subjects. But the party started facing a blowback after a point of time and course corrected itself. In 10 months, they realised this was creating a negative vibe because the demographic composition of Karnataka is different. There are huge cultural differences and this sort of Hindutva-based flattening of the state was not working. They realised that they had to go back to the old formula of caste-based identity politics. Raghupati Bhat, who led the hijab campaign has been denied a ticket. That should tell us that the ideological concerns were completely put aside. Q: You wrote that this election could change the caste-based politics in the state altogether. Could you talk about how significant this quota reshuffle has been and will be going ahead.A: There are two dominant communities which have controlled political power not because they are the largest demographically, but because they are concentrated in certain areas. The Lingayats, who have dominated state politics, are around 14% to 16% of the population. Then there are Vokkaligas, who are anywhere between 11% and 12%. When a community is concentrated in a certain area, their strike rate increases along with seat gain. Even if you are 50% of the population, but are scattered, you may not get that strike rate. That’s the reason these two communities have been able to control power politics in Karnataka. medium99955888The Lingayats are an organised community and were created with the aim of having a casteless and egalitarian society. The Vokkaligas after a point started imitating the structural, organised patterns of the Lingayats.The third major caste are the Kurubas, who are around 7% of the population and former chief minister Siddaramiah belongs to the community. But, this is one of those communities that is spread across the state. What this means is that in a particular constituency, if a politician is Lingayat, he needs the support of two other communities or at least one to win an election. That could be the Kuruba or some other community which is dominant in the area. So a politician works accordingly. If the BJP is cultivating the Lingayats, they're also cultivating a number of smaller communities so that they become the supporting cast.While the Lingayats have always presented themselves as a single voting bloc, communities like the Muslims, other backward castes and others did not have that kind of sociological unification.As a result, parties in the state usually have no major changes in their vote shares. That is what the BJP thought should be reworked by splintering the caste quota. The pie is divided among more communities and the charm of quota goes away. The BJP probably hopes this will create a more universal electorate. They’ve not spoken against caste, but have given so much representation that there is no incentive to vote on caste lines. We really don't know if it is going to work. The Muslims were under the OBC quota and had 4% reservation, which was given under HD Deve Gowda in 1995. No one challenged that.But the BJP came and tried to remove it. They tried to redistribute the quota and put Muslims in the economically weaker section, which created a furore. medium99956005The other secular parties were cautious and didn’t oppose it loudly, because they thought they would anger the majority. The BJP was waiting for them to do that. The courts have now put a stay on the decision.This election is also the swan song for politicians like Siddaramaiah, Deve Gowda and Mallikarjun Kharge. There’s going to be a huge generational change, but we don't know if the BJP will be able to set the narrative. There could also be a new leadership in Karnataka which could create a new kind of egalitarian politics or communal politics.Q: The BJP goes into this election viewed as a divided house with Basavaraj Bommai constantly facing this threat of being removed. However, now he’s the CM candidate. BL Santosh is said to have played an outsized role in the distribution of tickets. A: There was a thought that the BJP would not give a lot of tickets to the sitting MLAs, but that has not happened.It's a misunderstanding that BL Santosh has got the maximum benefit from the candidates list. It is Yediyurappa who has quietly got what he wanted. Santosh is a Brahmin and secretary of the BJP nationally, but before that he was the organising secretary in Karnataka. The traditional role this person plays is that he’s the representative of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh in the BJP and is supposed to create new leadership and possibilities. medium99955599Santosh came to Karnataka as an organising secretary in 2006, but nursed the ambition of becoming the chief minister. He ended up creating an army of acolytes rather than alternative leadership for the BJP. And that is where the problem is. The BJP doesn't seem to have a strong second line of leaders after Yediyurappa. Everyone else doesn’t have appeal across the state. While Yediyurappa can influence seats across the state, the rest of them might struggle to win their own constituency. There are few people like Deve Gowda or Siddaramiah, who can speak the language of the masses. Q: Will this hurt the BJP or do you think they have done enough to hold on to power?The BJP is a national party. They have money and there is the [Narendra] Modi narrative that comes and overrides everything. But we don't know. I met a BJP parliamentarian who said they are feeling very scared and that he’s hoping they don’t finish third. That's the kind of lack of confidence, but there are some days left during which something may happen. The Congress or the BJP may commit a blunder and the beneficiary of all of this may be the Janata Dal (Secular), which has been entirely underestimated.I always feel that if the BJP voter is frustrated with the party, and thinks that this election, I will teach my leaders a lesson, then his vote will not go to the Congress. That goes against his conscience. medium99957122The vote may go to the JD (S) and there may be collateral benefit for the party.The Congress’ problem is that they don't have a narrative. They think that the BJP is not performing and so we will win. I'm really concerned that the Congress is not reaching out to communities and giving the kind of message they ought to be giving aggressively. They don’t want to go out and speak for the Muslims. They don't want to be seen cultivating the Christians too much.The contradictions inside the party will not allow hobnobbing with a certain section of Dalits.The Congress has abdicated the coastal belt for over 30 years. Once they lose, they never go back to the constituency.Q: Rahul Gandhi is attempting a political revival of sorts with a campaign that talks about his disqualification as an MP. Is this the election that gives him that boost in image and credibility?A: Unfortunately, I don't see an iota of sympathy being expressed for his disqualification.Even Adani is not being pushed to the front. I think the Congress, wisely, is trying to play this election like a regional party by trying to contain the national narrative. In fact, they are trying to tell voters that Karnataka belongs to you. When Amit Shah told voters to hand over the state to Modi for good governance, there was a huge backlash.Also look at their state unit president who is seen as a ‘scamster’. Even if asked in his constituency, DK Shivakumar has a huge image problem. He has fancied himself as a troubleshooter and muscle man. But, when it comes to becoming the chief minister of an evolved state like Karnataka, you’ve always had leaders of some kind of stature. They've all had that kind of basic long-term preparation. I don't think this election will revive Rahul Gandhi’s fortunes because even if the party wins, it’s not because the people of Karnataka are angry that he was disqualified from Parliament. medium99955642Lingayats can swing it again in Karnataka. But there's a twist medium99955654 Q: Do you think the Karnataka election is a precursor to the 2024 election?A: A lot of people say that Karnataka has voted against the regime in Delhi. But I will discount all those theories since Narendra Modi has become prime minister. Even if BJP loses the 2023 election in Karnataka, it still has a long way to go for 2024. You'll have Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan before that and the narrative may be set there.If the Congress wins in Karnataka, the BJP may also be scared that the financial position of the Congress to fund its 2024 campaign will improve. So they may be in a desperate situation, when they may want to ensure that doesn’t happen. So I wouldn't go with the theory that the narrative for 2024 will be set with the Karnataka results. If parties are not talking about issues like communalism or the dissolution of quotas for Muslims, what are the issues that parties are fighting this election on?The Congress has bent backwards to welcome a lot of Lingayat leaders who don't really matter. But we don't know whether this is going to work for them. Their welfare agenda is very predictable with allowances for unemployed youths. The Congress is not saying we'll create employment and that’s the difference. medium99957193 But if you look at just ideas, JD (S) has been leagues ahead in terms of a programme and a plan. HD Kumaraswamy has gone around the state twice already with a clear development and welfare plan he’ll bring in, if he becomes the chief minister. The Congress has not set the narrative at all and there’s nothing substantial. They didn’t stand by the Muslim girls who were being attacked during the hijab controversy. So, how do you expect 13% of the population to back you? I really don't know what narratives are going to work for them. They may win by default and be the single largest party, but I say for sure someone is going to deliver a victory for this party.There is the X factor in Karnataka, which is what is termed as Operation Lotus. The BJP perfected the whole game of splintering Opposition parties and getting their legislators to switch sides in Karnataka. We don't know if the BJP will play that game, though it certainly has the money. medium99955938How BJP changed the caste game in Karnataka medium99955943