It's luck by chance for Bollywood

Two yearend monster box-office winners - 'Ghajini' and 'Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi' may temporarily alter the perspective. But the truth is that in 2009, Bollywood won't be writing its own script.
Let the feel-good fever of Christmas and the feeling of hope brought by New Year abate and the Hindi film industry will find itself staring at the big picture - of economic slowdown.Producers are hoping that young people, who constitute the core multiplex audience, continue to go to the cinema despite the hard times.
Siddharth Roy Kapur of UTV says that fewer movies will be made in 2009. In recent times, Bollywood budgets have sky rocketed. Roy Kapur foresees the 'rightsizing' of budgets. "The talent costs, which includes the actors' fees, will go down. So will production costs," he says.
Right on cue, Bollywood is already cutting corners. The Abbas-Mustaan production, 'Life Partner' dropped 20 dancers for a song sequence. Newspaper reports also say that directors such as Anees Bazmi and David Dhawan have been asked to trim their fees.
Trade expert Komal Nahta agrees that the fees charged by actors and directors have reached astronomical levels and that course-correction was badly needed. "John Abraham has already chopped his price for a top producer in a forthcoming film. Even technicians have to do the same," he says.
For the past two years, joint productions were in currency. But now, says Roy Kapur, most Indian producers will focus on local content. That's because hard times force companies to focus on core business rather than experimentation.
Industry experts also believe that cinema hall collections will account for less and less of the revenue in the coming months. Right now, it is about 60-65% of revenue. Roy Kapur predicts it dipping to 50-55%. "We will also witness a growth in home video, overseas and satellite TV collection. Right now home video accounts for 5-7% of total collection; this should be up to 10-12%," he says.
This may be the well-trodden path of the developed world, where home video can generate as much as 33% of the revenue. A spate of terrorist attacks has already pushed many more Indians to watch movies at home. DVD rental collections went up sharply right after 26/11.
In terms of content, film director Jaideep Varma believes that the economic downturn could cut either way. The liquidity crunch could lead producers and directors to offer more innovative projects. "But it is equally possible that the off-beat and niche subjects are put on the backburner," says Verma, whose film 'Hulla' was much-
appreciated at the Osian film festival.
Nahta says that hard times generally mean the audience is looking for a good laugh, which means films offering a perfect escape from harsh reality have a better chance. Nahta expects the trend of feelgood comedies to continue. The recent success of 'Dostana', 'Golmaal Returns' and 'Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi' further illustrates the point. Aamir Khan's 'Ghajini' is the exception. But then, Aamir has always courted success on his own terms.
In 2008, small-budget movies, such as 'Aamir' and 'A Wednesday', which were woven around terrorism, were critically appreciated and commercially successful. But Nahta believes that after 26/11, producers are wary of making films on terrorism. "People are sick of what they have seen on television during the attack," he says.
The terrorist attacks changed much, not least the fortunes of a few. Director Onir's 'Sorry Bhai' was released the week that terrorists laid siege to Mumbai. The movie received decent critical reviews but suffered heavily at the box office because the entire nation was glued to television. Onir says many may have thought it would be "insensitive" to watch a movie in the middle of such a dastardly attack. "Even when the immediate fear of going to a theatre subsides, people will still be wary of visiting multiplexes," he says.
The odds may appear to be stacked against the Hindi film industry. But like the stereotypical underdog it faithfully depicts, it will continue to battle its adversaries. And hopefully like the pint-sized hero of 2008's biggest hit, it will win.