Indo-Pak nuclear conflict unlikely

new delhi: on no issue has there been so much disinformation than on the alleged possibility of a nuclear confrontation between india and pakistan. the surprising aspect of this disinformation campaign is that it emanates to a large extent from the us and western countries and is echoed in the indian and pakistani media. recently, pakistan's official spokesman general rashid querishi tried to reassure his countrymen and the rest of the world that both pakistan and india were "responsible nuclear powers" and that the nuclear weapons were only meant for deterrence.therefore, he argued, there was no risk of escalation of the conflict to a nuclear level. but his observations have not received the attention they deserve. in 1990, when the armies of india and pakistan were not mobilised to the extent they are today, the us perception of the possibility of pakistan using nuclear weapons led to president george bush sr. sending in the gates mission. now beyond the telephone calls urging india to exercise restraint and pakistan to take more vigorous action against the terrorists, the us leadership has not given expression to nuclear anxieties. this appears to have escaped the notice of most of the alarmist analysts. the main reason for this relaxed attitude of the us is that unlike in 1990 the us forces, especially its navy and air force, are present massively in the region and are in a position to ensure that any indo-pakistan conflict does not escalate. any outbreak of hostilities would be halted by a un security council resolution under chapter vii, invoking mandatory sanctions within a few days. india is militarily stronger of the two antagonists. india has also pledged a no first use policy in respect of nuclear weapons. invariably, all analysts predicting use of nuclear weapons in the indo-pakistan conflicts talk about a pakistan, facing a disastrous defeat, being forced to resort to nuclear weapons. for reasons explained above, that situation is unlikely to arise. secondly, the indian armed forces are sensitive to tolerance limits of pakistan and are not likely to force it into a situation when it would have to consider the use of nuclear weapons. above all, the presence of us fleet in the arabian sea is the guarantor that nuclear weapons would not be used by pakistan. if and when pakistan takes out its weapons and starts readying them for firing, the us can never be sure that some of them may not be aimed at the us carriers, considering the enormous resentment among the pakistani servicemen against the us. after all, pakistani nuclear scientists have collaborated with osama bin laden. in such circumstances, the us, which is keeping pakistan under close surveillance, will destroy the pakistani nuclear weapons through accurate non-nuclear strikes. the pakistanis know it, the americans know it and the indians also know it. therefore, there is no risk of an indo- pakistani conflict with the us forces present in the arabian sea. it is a very different scenario from all four previous wars.