'India needs to keep in mind that today's Russia is not old USSR'

With the West ramping up pressure on Russia over the Ukraine war, India finds itself in a tough spot. Serhii Plokhii, director of the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, spoke with TOI about the Ukrainian perspective and why New Delhi should rethink the post-Soviet space: Do you think this war could have been avoided at any point? You must remember that the genesis of the present conflict lies in Russian actions in 2014-15 when Russia annexed Crimea and sparked off the war in the Donbas region. What we are witnessing today is the result of Russia’s failure to achieve its objectives over the last eight years. Had Russia attained its goals, one way or another, we wouldn’t have seen this all-out war today. Was Ukraine naïve to seek Nato membership? Or was Ukraine betrayed by Nato? The issue has a long history. Following the break-up of the Soviet Union, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum provided security assurances, prohibiting the major nuclear powers, namely the US, UK and Russia, from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. This paved the way for these countries to give up their nuclear weapons. But the letter and spirit of the memorandum was not upheld. This left Ukraine in a dilemma with regard to its strategic security interests. It could have joined former Warsaw Pact countries in the Visegrad Group comprising Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. But all those countries went on to join EU and Nato. medium90712186 Therefore, Ukrainian politics and society struggled for many years to choose the right course for the country, culminating in the Maidan Revolution of 2013-14 when widespread protests broke out against then President Viktor Yanukovych who refused to sign the political association and free trade agreement with EU – he would eventually flee to Russia. All of these factors contributed to Ukraine looking to Nato. But I don’t think Nato betrayed Ukraine because there was never an explicit promise of membership. Even though the group said the doors are open to Ukraine, there was never a specific timetable. The real betrayal is by the countries who promised to guarantee Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty as part of the Budapest Memorandum. Why do you think Putin would risk so much in launching this invasion? I think Russia didn’t expect the kind of backlash it is experiencing. It didn’t count on the war turning out like this. The model that everyone had in mind was the takeover of Crimea in 2014 or limited military conflict like in the Donbas in 2014-15. So I think Moscow was taken by surprise by the Ukrainian resistance and the international reaction that followed. That being said, Moscow was always prepared to take big risks on the issue of Ukraine. After all, the Soviet Union fell apart on the issue of Ukraine. The Ukrainian referendum of December 1, 1991, where more than 92% Ukrainians voted to leave the Soviet Union, was the last nail in the coffin of the USSR. And Ukraine was the second-largest Soviet Republic after Russia. Putin, especially since he became the Russian president for the third time, has been trying to re-integrate the post-Soviet space. And that project is incomplete without Ukraine. As Zbigniew Brzezinski said, with Ukraine, Russia is an empire, without Ukraine it is not. How do you explain Putin questioning Ukrainian nationhood? On top of being an imperial question, this is also a question of Russian identity. Putin goes back to the 19th-century model of the Russian nation where there was a belief that Belarusians, Russians and Ukrainians were one and the same people. To prove this case the Russian empire banned for more than 40 years any publication in the Ukrainian language to stop the development of high Ukrainian culture. Putin is trying to recreate this today with the help of the army. The model is the same: There is one big Russian nation, people on the ground can speak different Slavic dialects, but the high culture and the state is the same. So this is a return of the empire in a different way. But this war in Ukraine militates against the idea of one nation, one people. Do you have any hopes of a breakthrough from the peace talks? It is positive that there are talks. But what we hear is that the tone of talks has been changing depending on the situation on the ground. So the initial Russian idea that Ukraine is a state possessed by the Nazis has slowly transformed into more sober discussions. However, I don’t think there will be any breakthroughs at the negotiating table. The latter will just be a place to adjust positions depending on the ground situation. The real outcome will depend on the success or failure of the next Russian offensive. Till Russia exhausts its military resources, it will see how far it can go. What do you think about India’s position on the war? Do you see sympathy for Russia from some quarters? The history of close relations between India and USSR is now being channelled into the India-Russia relations. So, from that point of view there hasn’t been much of a change since the fall of USSR. However, the role that India played during the Cold War as the leader of the Non-Aligned Movement and champion of de-colonisation has been abandoned now. Otherwise, there would be more solidarity with Ukraine. Also, there is a realignment of forces underway in the world. And interestingly, India is behaving more or less like China. That said, there is a difference between the erstwhile USSR and today’s Russia. It took a while for people in the West to realise that there are other countries in that Soviet space. In India too it is high time to look at this space differently. Also, erstwhile ties between India and Soviet Union weren’t specifically Russian. In development of heavy industry and metallurgical industry, etc, many of those ties were actually with Ukraine. So you should re-learn your history and geography. If this war doesn’t do it, I don’t know what will. What more can the international community do to help Ukraine? International resolutions are a good way to take certain positions and feel good about those positions. But it is also a cheap way to deal with the problem. India is in a situation where it takes a position but probably doesn’t feel good about that position. Because I don’t know how you can look at the footage of war coming from Ukraine and stay neutral. That apart, the war and its settlement will depend on how far Russia is willing to go. So the way to stop the war is actually to help Ukrainians protect themselves. There are many ways to do that from supporting Ukraine to supporting the sanctions against Russia. It is very clear who the aggressor is, it is very clear who the victim is. If you want to be on the right side of history, it is very clear what that side is.