India should clearly speak out where international law is broken: German MP Jurgen Hardt

International eyes are again on India as Modi undertakes a visit to Ukraine two years after the beginning of full-scale war in that country. Jurgen Hardt, German MP and foreign policy spokesperson of the German CDU, spoke with Rudroneel Ghosh, about hot-button geopolitical issues and India's approach to them:
PM Modi is visiting Ukraine soon. With the Ukraine war in its third year, what needs to happen for a ceasefire?
The curious thing about that conflict is that no one is talking about what Russia has to give for peace. The only demand on Russia is to respect the Ukrainian border and promise not to attack Ukraine again. Therefore, the negotiating position of Ukraine is clear but also probably weak. The only chance of bringing Putin to the negotiating table is through ensuring that he and his immediate coterie feel that they can risk losing in some way. For example, like losing Crimea. Putin then will not be able to continue his so-called operation against ‘fascists’ and it will shutter the whole Russian system. Thus, I see the chance that Putin himself, before it comes to a situation where he loses, will declare that he has actually won the war and stop fighting. Then the rest of the world has to smile to this lie and do something to ensure durable peace. But this will only happen if Putin believes failure is possible. We have to ensure Putin fails.

Has EU reached a stage where it can’t have any ties with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Nobody in Europe wanted to cut ties with Russia the country. But we also see no chance of cooperating with the govt of Putin. This is not a legitimate govt in terms of democratic elections and rule of law. So it is possible that in future we might see a Russia that is totally different from what it is today. We did make a lot of attempts to bind Russia to Europe. We did economic associations, bought Russian oil and gas, because we believed that a weak Russia is a problem for us and we should stabilise this country.

But that strategy failed.
The strategy failed on account of Putin but it doesn’t mean that it isn’t a good strategy generally. Russia always skipped the opportunity to do most of the work with the EU. And the reason for that is Putin fears the rule of law. Because every closer cooperation with EU creates situations for independent justice. And Putin clearly doesn’t want rule of law and hopes to retain his oligarchical system.

What are your thoughts about US elections? Will a potential return of Trump take us back to Trans-Atlantic confrontations?
What we saw in the four years of Trump is that it took a relatively long time before he was able to make concrete demands on Europe. Because he wasn’t well prepared for office. I am sure that won’t be the case this time should he win. So in case of Trump presidency, we should be prepared for a more competitive scenario from day one.

That said, we also have the experience of getting things done with him. You have to figure out what he really wants. For example, last time we had reached a situation where the automobile industry was secured because we made a deal with Trump on import of soya beans from the American Mid-west to EU. This is how Trump does politics. So EU should identify those items on which we can do deals with a potential Trump presidency.

Meanwhile, I say we missed the chance to help Biden to give proof that his cooperative approach is better, even for the American people, than Trump’s confrontationist approach. The Biden-Harris team has been very good and stable on foreign policy and security issues, no matter what people say about Biden’s age.

Has Europe found a solution to China’s weaponisation of economic interdependencies?
I agree that Chinese trade policy has become ‘martialised’. But we also see that the Chinese govt needs good trade relations to maintain the social contract in China. This social contract is under strain now, and if you talk to Chinese officials, they are very open about the fact that they face the risks of economic chaos, housing bubble, and several other questions. Their biggest problem is demography. So I think that they also don’t really want to do something disruptive, like attacking Taiwan.

But they keep threatening Taiwan.
True, but they failed to influence the elections in Taiwan this year, they failed in blackmailing the Taiwanese and the rest of the world. Sure, there is muscle-flexing from Beijing. But it knows it needs good trade relations with the world. In response, we should combine approaches of US, G7 , Germany and friends like India. Then we will have the chance to get China to make compromises. The key here is reciprocity. If China can have stakes in the Hamburg port, why can’t we have stakes in the Shanghai port? Also, with respect to Chinese investment projects, should such projects also be financed by China? Because this runs the risk of China acquiring assets in case the project fails. So we have to think deeply about such things.

How do you see India’s role in geopolitics today?
India and Germany are among the top 5 economies in world. Given our economic power, both India and Germany should take a more engaged role in international affairs.

I respect India’s traditional neutral, bloc-free approach. I also appreciate the role that India plays in Brics and G20. But we should be clear that neutrality should not hinder a govt from speaking out against breaking of international law. Because international law is global. This is the fairytale that Russian and Chinese presidents make up that international law is somehow a Western invention. Therefore, India should be encouraged to maintain its neutral position but clearly speak out where international law is broken, for example with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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