'India saw 9.3% excess deaths during first 2 Covid years': Government sources

NEW DELHI: India recorded 9.3% 'excess deaths' in 2020-21, the first two years of Covid-19 pandemic, government sources said on Saturday referring to the latest Civil Registration System (CRS) data.

Excess deaths, which refer to additional deaths from any cause observed during these years, over and above the expected fatalities in the absence of pandemic, was much higher in other high- and middle-income countries, govt sources said. "US reported 17.6% more deaths than expected in 2020-21 while Italy and UK reported 11.8% excess deaths and Russia reported 29.9% such deaths. France, Germany and Canada reported 6.7%, 5.3% and 5.2% excess deaths. Among the middle-income countries, Mexico had 43.6% excess mortality while Brazil had 12.6% excess mortality," they added.

In the past, reports of exorbitantly high excess deaths in India during 2020 and 2021, based on modelling methodology, have emerged in public domain. A WHO report estimated India's excess deaths at 47 lakh. Another report in a top journal cited a figure of about 41 lakh excess deaths in this period. Some experts also suggested that the excess deaths were essentially caused Covid-19 and that Indian govt played them down.

Govt sources said excess deaths in these years are not equal to deaths caused due to Covid. It includes reported Covid deaths (4.81 lakh by the end of 2021), unreported Covid-19 deaths, deaths due to all other causes, and possible indirect effects of Covid-19, they said.

Officials from health ministry said the number of deaths documented in CRS has been increasing over time, even in the years preceding Covid-19 outbreak in 2020. The annual increment observed each year, compared to the previous year, has varied from 1.3% in 2016 to 9.9% in 2019, with the average increase over three preceding years (2016 to 2019) estimated at 6.4% per annum. "Our teams conducted preliminary analyses of CRS data to assess cumulative excess deaths in the years 2020 and 2021," said an official. He added that based on the three-year (2016-19) annual rate of increase of 6.4% mentioned above, the expected number of deaths would be 81,31,869 in 2020 and 86,54,185 in 2021. However, the observed deaths were 81,15,882 in 2020 and 1,02,24,506 in 2021.

"The excess deaths, defined as observed minus expected deaths, were (-)15,987 and 15,70,321, respectively," said the official. "Thus, the total excess deaths over the two-year period amounted to 15,54,334. As a percentage, this is 9.3% higher than the expected deaths. This translates into about 1,249 excess deaths per one million population," he added.