In 8 charts, why Covid in NE remains a worry | India News

As the case with most of India, the second wave of the Covid pandemic in the northeast was far worse — and deadlier — than the first. Strangely, the spread of Covid has not abated in the region even as the national numbers have started dipping. A majority of the northeast states have been reporting a rising trajectory of Covid cases while daily infections are on a steady decline elsewhere. Moreover, the test positivity rate (TPR) — the share of positive coronavirus tests out of total samples taken — is worryingly high in several districts. This, despite a two-month lockdown in most states in the region. According to data from Geographic Insights Dataverse at Harvard University, as many as 32 districts in the region are reporting a TPR of 10% as of July 14. To put things in perspective, the World Health Organisation recommends a TPR of 5% or below for the safe reopening of public activities. Health experts feel the prolonged second wave in the northeast is mainly due to lack of Covid-appropriate behaviour and change in virus strains.Here's a state-wise look at the Covid situation in NE ...Assam medium84438827Assam comprises nearly 68% of the total population of the northeast region. Thus, it is not surprising that it bore the brunt of the second wave surge in the region during April and May.The state hit its all-time peak on May 21 when it reported 6,573 new infections. Since then, the cases have gone past the 6,000-mark just once.But the graph above shows clearly that cases in Assam have failed to come down as drastically as they did in the rest of the country. Daily infections are still hovering above the 2000-mark, which is around 1/3rd the peak value.Compared to the NE region, only one district in Assam has a TPR higher than 10%. But over half a dozen districts still have TPR in the range of 5-10%, which is comparatively higher than many other worst-hit districts.Meghalaya medium84438847Meghalaya was the second worst-hit northeastern state during the second wave of the pandemic. It recorded over 21,000 cases and 414 deaths in April and May.But weeks later, the Covid trajectory in the state remains unusually high.A month after hitting its peak of 1,183 cases in a single day, Meghalaya's daily cases are still hovering over the 800-mark. The 7-day rolling average in the state is currently 833.At least five districts in the state have a TPR of over 10%, indicating that the spread of Covid in the community continues to be high.Dr Aman Warr, director of Health Services, Meghalaya, told timesofindia.com that the virus during the second wave was more virulent with very high transmissibility, which contributed to the surge of cases in the state. He also cited other reasons like complacency among the people, who had lowered their guard after a muted first wave of the virus.Manipur medium84438856The third worst-hit state in the region during the second wave, Manipur has recorded over 50,000 infections since April 1. The numbers continue to remain dangerously close to the second wave peak.The state had logged over 911 new cases on July 12, which is almost 89% of its peak value of 1,032 reported on May 31.What's particularly worrying is the high test positivity rate in the state. As many as nine districts in Manipur have a positivity rate of over 10%. In places like Tengnoupal, Bishupur and Imphal East, the TPR is higher than even 20%.TOI had reported that change in the virus strain or lack of Covid-appropriate behavior could be the primary reasons behind this.Tripura medium84438887The second most populous state in the region after Assam, Tripura's Covid situation remained mostly in control compared to the neighbouring states if we consider factors like population density.However, the daily caseload continues to remain high when compared to peak figures. In the last week alone, daily infections hit the 500-mark twice.According to the current trajectory, it appears the state is unlikely to hit its pre-second wave numbers just yet.Though, on the bright side, the positivity rate in Tripura has remained under control with only one district reporting TPR higher than 10%.Arunachal Pradesh medium84438819Despite its low population density, Covid has been spreading rapidly in the hill state for the last few weeks. As a matter of fact, Arunachal is perhaps the only state in the country to hit its peak figure as late as July after reporting a single-day rise of 566 cases on July 13.As the infections continue to remain high, it is too early to say whether Arunachal has hit its peak yet.But the primary cause for concern in Arunachal is its high TPR. Almost half the districts in the state have a positivity rate of 5% or more. At least 3 of them have TPR higher than 10%.Nagaland medium84438915Nagaland is perhaps the only state in the northeastern region that has maintained a steady downward trajectory since touching its peak of 366 cases a day on May 14.However, cases have started rising marginally since touching a nearly three-month low of 40 earlier this month. Nevertheless, the situation in the hill state is relatively better than its other northeastern sisters.Sikkim medium84438938The Covid situation in the least populated northeastern state had been relatively under control even during the second wave. The fresh cases in Sikkim have been declining since the state hit its peak figure of 420 infections a day on May 29.However, the daily case count continues to hover at nearly half the peak value.Alarmingly, three out of the four districts in Sikkim have a very high TPR.As of July 14, West Sikkim has a TPR of nearly 70%. This means that out of every 10 people who got tested for Covid, 7 turned out to be positive for the infection.Mizoram medium84438962Mizoram was the least affected state in the northeastern region during the second wave of the pandemic. But a late surge in cases has put the authorities on the edge.Daily infections in the state continue to maintain an upward trajectory despite several weeks of lockdown. The state recorded its all-time high of 548 cases on July 8.As the case with Arunachal, it is too early to say whether the state has its second wave peak yet.Prolonged second waveThe central government has been holding talks with authorities in the northeastern states amid an increasing trend in daily infections.The health ministry had earlier flagged concerns over the continuous surge in NE and sent central teams to the seven states of Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura.Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, expressed concern over the situation in some districts and urged the chief ministers to stay vigilant. With reports of people already violating Covid norms and rushing to hill stations after the devastating second wave, things seem precariously balanced in the northeastern region for now.