How Congress' winter hopes left it facing a summer of discontent

When Congress staked its future, including the 2024 parliamentary contest, on the outcome of last December’s assembly elections, confident that it would win a couple of Hindi states, it forgot the wisdom of not putting all eggs in one basket.Where the party had hoped for a tailwind that would carry allies in its wake, it now seems devoid of focus and strategy. There are dissensions and defections, and snubs from its Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc partners. While some of those rebuffs are influenced by the pressure of Centre’s enforcement agencies, many of Congress’ current troubles are rooted in its whitewash in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. medium nocaption108005994 medium nocaption108006009 medium nocaption108006024If Maharashtra satrap Ashok Chavan and Rajasthan tribal leader Mahendrajeet Malviya look towards Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and favourably disposed parties like Trinamool Congress (TMC) and National Conference (NC) stare down Congress, it’s because the party is a hapless picture of implosion. Strategic blunders and hubris have brought it to this pass.An opportunity lostAlthough Congress has been on a slide post-2019, its massive victory last May over BJP in a heavily polarised campaign led by Narendra Modi himself threw up a rare opportunity to rebuild and consolidate. Anti-BJP parties, even those wary of Congress’ rise, pragmatically saw the benefit of riding piggyback on the grand old outfit. The INDIA bloc emerged from that convergence of interests.But Congress believed it could get more if it left things hanging till it had won Chhattisgarh and MP.A decent show in Rajasthan, even in a loss, would further amplify the ‘Congress is back’ message, which could be used to dictate to allies and overcome organisational weaknesses. It proved a fatal error. medium108006289Missing organisational busCongress has been haemorrhaging since Modi’s reelection in 2019. Its strong leaders and vote catchers at the grassroots left and it shrank geographically, losing every state election for three and a half years until Himachal Pradesh in December 2022. That was shortly after Mallikarjun Kharge became party president in October 2022, and Rahul Gandhi went on his Bharat Jodo Yatra from Kanyakumari to Kashmir.Karnataka delivered spectacularly, providing the party with the space and time to revamp its organisation, finalise state-wise strategy and seal alliances. Victory is a time to assert leadership and consolidate, which lifts the morale of cadres. But ignoring conventional wisdom, Congress decided it needed to focus only on the December polls.Rahul Gandhi went about addressing rallies and press conferences but the leadership ignored organisational working. By the time Congress lost big in December, the state units had wasted crucial time with practically no organisational oversight. The All India Congress Committee (AICC) rejig late December, pending since Kharge’s elevation over a year ago, consequently did not inspire much enthusiasm, with most appointments appearing hasty. The party is set to pay heavily for this.Derailing alliance trainWhen Congress’ fortunes revived after the Karnataka victory, Rahul’s overgrown beard dominated the discourse as did his attacks on Adani-Modi, and questions about government's performance on jobs and economy. The INDIA alliance that came into existence as a result of entreaties from the likes of Nitish, Mamata, Thackeray and Pawar, wanted to seal a seat-sharing deal and embark on a nationwide campaign. But Congress dragged its feet, believing it could extract a better bargain after the MP-Chhattisgarh-Rajasthan-Telangana contests.Since its rout, allies have blamed Congress for killing the alliance momentum by delaying rallies and seat-sharing. While Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) have crossed over to the BJP camp, Mamata and National Conference are no longer in a mood to indulge a floundering Congress. Even in states like Maharashtra, where Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray remained committed to the alliance, and Jharkhand and Bihar with Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Tejashwi Yadav of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), a final picture has not been announced. Any deal now would appear delayed in contrast to BJP whose strategy and campaign are already in full swing. medium nocaption108005684Rahul and his new yatraRahul’s east-to-west Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra was designed as a follow-up to his south-to-north march, but it was meant to amplify the mood after the anticipated good show in the Hindi belt. The last yatra was a mega success as it brought massive crowds to Rahul’s route with the message of “mohabbat ki dukan” and his attacks on Modi government.But the sequel, which followed defeats that made Karnataka look like a flash in the pan, has been a sideshow. It has touched turfs where Congress still has hopes, like North Bengal and parts of Assam, Bihar and Jharkhand, but the concern in Congress is about the larger election strategy for Lok Sabha polls. Most now view the yatra as muddled messaging, further undercut by repeated obstruction from BJP state governments and recurring crises in Congress.