Can Amritpal Singh's Baisakhi bet change Punjab politics?

Fugitive ‘preacher’ Amritpal Singh is in “high spirits” in his own words. With the police still looking out for him, Amritpal, a Khalistan sympathiser, released a video clip on March 29 urging Akal Takht jathedar Giani Harpreet Singh to summon a Sarbat Khalsa on Baisakhi — which is on April 14.Sarbat Khalsa is an assembly of all factions of Sikhs. The last time a Sarbat Khalsa was held in Punjab was on November 10, 2015, after the sacrilege incident and subsequent police firing on protesters. It was primarily organised by Sikh groups opposed to the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which was then in power in the state.The congregation passed several resolutions demanding change of leadership in the three takhts located in Punjab. Takhts are seats of power for Sikhs and the Akal Takht is the highest seat of temporal authority.Watch: The chase for Amritpal Singh continues medium nocaption98805510Back in historyAfter the death of Guru Gobind Singh, the 10th Guru in Sikhism, in the early 18th century, Sikh military units began to convene Sarbat Khalsas to discuss religious, social and political issues of high importance.In the past century, two prominent Sarbat Khalsas are known to have taken place. One was in 1920, which was summoned to discuss control of gurdwaras. With this, the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee was born.The other was in 1986 — two years after Operation Blue Star. It was organised by radical Sikh groups to discuss kar sewa (voluntary labour) at the Akal Takht. A panthic committee that was formed after this congregation to decide on the future of the Sikh struggle eventually gave a call for Khalistan — a sovereign state for Sikhs.On his own termsPunjab police, with the help of central agencies, initiated a crackdown on Amritpal’s group Waris Punjab De on March 18. The police have arrested more than 100 people, including several close aides of the self-styled radical preacher, and sent them to a jail in Assam. But Amritpal remains at large, after having given police the slip at least twice so far. medium99294985By asking the Akal Takht jathedar to summon a Sarbat Khalsa on Baisakhi, he has put the Akal Takht at the forefront of the conflict against the state. It has also intensified speculations of Amritpal’s surrender — but on his own terms.If it is indeed going to be a surrender, Amritpal is doing it before a religious body and not the police. This strategy, says a senior government official, is clearly aimed at building a perception that he does not believe in the state authority. “It is a question of power and influence,” the official says.In a bindThe Akal Takht seems to have landed in a Catch-22 situation. If it convenes the Sarbat Khalsa, Amritpal can assume a larger-than-life significance — and his increasing political clout is a threat to mainstream Sikh politics.Amritpal projecting himself as the leader of radical Sikh groups through a Sarbat Khalsa is also going to be a challenge to the Akal Takht’s own authority.If the Akal Takht does not convene the Sarbat Khalsa, radical Sikh groups may jump in and summon an assembly. Notably, the 2015 Sarbat Khalsa was primarily organised by the Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar), whose chief Simranjit Singh Mann is now a Lok Sabha member from Sangrur, and the United Akali Dal — both believed to be radical in their ideologies. medium99294949But, summoning a Sarbat Khalsa is also not a casual affair. Such assemblies often have long-term impact on the Sikh community and cannot be convened on the demand of one person, including the jathedar of the Akal Takht. It involves approaching Sikh groups across the world, briefing them about the agenda, seeking their participation and asking them to appoint representatives. The process can take several weeks.The Akal Takht has so far maintained silence on the issue.For the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)-led Punjab government, it is now a race against time, says another senior officer. He says that the police have to arrest Amritpal before Baisakhi because, if he surrenders at a Sarbat Khalsa, it can lead to a law-and-order issue and also create unfavourable conditions for AAP ahead of the Lok Sabha bypoll in Jalandhar next month.Political implicationsBut the larger politics of the issue goes beyond the upcoming bypoll. The equation of any political party in Punjab with the Akal Takht has electoral consequences.On March 27, the Akal Takht issued a 24-hour ultimatum to the Punjab government to release all Sikh men detained in connection with the crackdown on Waris Punjab De. It led to a heated exchange between chief minister Bhagwant Mann and the jathedar. medium99295196Never before has a CM come out so openly against the Akal Takht jathedar. While some political observers suggest that it can have adverse implications for AAP, others suggest that it is a well-drafted strategy of the political party to project itself as an assertive entity in this power play.The SAD led by the Badals seem to be using this situation to regain lost ground in panthic politics, something that had made the party a strong socio-political force in the 1990s.Congress factions are not on the same page when tackling the Amritpal imbroglio. While one of its factions is stressing on him being a threat to national security, another has been protesting the National Security Act charges pressed in the case.