Himachal Pradesh assembly polls 2022: BJP banks on 'Modi magic', Congress pins hope on anti-incumbency

NEW DELHI: Himachal Pradesh will go to polls on November 12, the Election Commission said on Friday. The counting of votes will take place on December 8 and elaborate arrangements have been made to ensure maximum participation of voters in the "festival of democracy", said Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar.

In the elections to the 68-member assembly with over 55 lakh eligible voters, the BJP will seek to overturn the three-decade convention of no ruling party returning to power by defeating the main opposition Congress in the hill state.


Here's a brief SWOT analysis of the BJP and Congress in Himachal:
BJP banking on Modi

• Strengths: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, first and foremost. Himachal Pradesh has a history of not returning the incumbent to office and BJP's hope of reversing that trend rests on Modi to a great extent. The party can also count on its organisation machinery to deliver while the disarray in the Congress will be to its advantage.
• Weaknesses: Over-reliance on Modi could backfire and anti-incumbency is a real threat. In an online survey by a Shimla-based research group, 72.6% respondents said the BJP will face anti-incumbency. Former CMs Prem Kumar Dhumal and Shanta Kumar are also not as active as they used to be owing to advancing age.
• Opportunities: Chief minister Jai Ram Thakur's clean image will provide BJP a credible face to go to the polls with. AAP's entry will mean three-way contests in several seats and the party could eat into Congress votes, to the BJP's advantage.
• Threats: The biggest threat is Himachal Pradesh doing what it always does -- voting out the incumbent. Also, the Congress has accused the BJP of bringing the state to financial ruin and if it finds resonance with people, then the battle could be tough.

Congress in disarray

• Strengths: Difficult to discern at this moment but the state remains one of the few where the party still has a structure and genuine support. The state unit is led by Pratibha Singh, the widow of six-time CM Virbhadra Singh, who could rally the party around now that the poll dates have been announced.
• Weaknesses: The general drift in the Congress nationally has not left the state unit untouched. A lack of energy was palpable while senior leader Anand Sharma's role is up in the air. How the second rung state leadership rises to the challenge will be key.
• Opportunities: After the near-miss in Uttarakhand which it was widely expected to win, Himachal presents a golden opportunity to the Congress to wrest a state from the BJP. AAP's entry notwithstanding, it essentially remains a two-horse race and Congress will take heart from the state's voting tradition. Also, it has the wind in its sails after its by-election victories in the Mandi parliamentary seat along with the assembly seats of Arki, Jubbal-Kotkhai and Fatehpur last year.
• Threats: AAP is the unknown quantity which could derail the Congress's plans. If the newbie takes away a chunk of its votes, like it has done in other states, the party could flounder. The BJP can be expected to throw everything into the campaign and will not give up easily. Any rancour over ticket distribution could also be fatal.

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