Fresh Bay of Bengal systems may delay monsoon retreat, says IMD

PUNE: The southwest monsoon's exit from central India may not happen on schedule this year, with fresh weather systems over the Bay of Bengal likely to prolong rain in Maharashtra and parts of Central India.

The latest Extended Range Forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday indicated a renewed spell between Sept 25 and Oct 1, keeping large parts of central and even northwest India wetter than normal during what is usually the season's final phase.

"Based on the Extended Range Forecast, a low pressure area is likely to form over northwest and adjoining central India during the first half of the week beginning Sept 22. There is likelihood of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over most parts of central and north Peninsular India (especially Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra) mainly during the first half of the week," a senior IMD official said.



"Rainfall activity during that period is likely to be above normal over central and peninsular India and normal to above normal over most parts of northwest and east India," he said.

Private forecaster Skymet Weather Services president G P Sharma said multiple weather systems were expected to track into the Bay of Bengal through the rest of the month, sustaining monsoon activity across parts of eastern, central and western India. "Such back-to-back developments could push the withdrawal beyond the normal timeline," he said.

Sharma also said a well-marked cyclonic circulation over Myanmar's Arakan coast was likely to evolve into a low pressure area over North Bay of Bengal by Sunday. He said: "Another circulation may soon follow, potentially merging with the first to form a stronger system. If this plays out, the combined system could drive rains deep into central and western India and even revive showers in areas where the monsoon has receded."

Such a system, Sharma said, could move inland over Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh before travelling through central India. "It is likely to bring fairly widespread rainfall over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and even south Gujarat, with some heavy spells on Sept 27 and 28. Mumbai and other parts of Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha could also get rain at that time."

He said these weather features "are part of a larger chain of circulations" travelling from the Pacific across Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar before re-emerging in the Bay.

Select The Times of India as your preferred source on Google Search