Eknath Shinde as Maharashtra CM: A BJP masterstroke to checkmate Uddhav Thackeray?

NEW DELHI: In 2019, the National Democratic Alliance in Maharashtra collapsed on a bitter note after the assembly elections because the BJP was not ready to accept Shiv Sena's claim to the post of chief minister.

Two and a half years later, the BJP has done just that. It has installed a rebel Shiv Sainik, Eknath Shinde, as the chief minister of the state.

And not just that, the BJP has also "requested" its own leader Devendra Fadnavis, who was the party's chief minister from 2014 to 2019, to work as a deputy to Shinde.

The double twist in the Maharashtra tale is not just surprising but also intriguing.


2019 vs 2022
When Uddhav Thackeray broke Shiv Sena's decades-long association with the BJP in 2019, he was possibly apprehensive of the growing popularity and reach of the saffron party in the state. Over the years, the BJP had outgrown its ally, increasing not just its seat tally but also vote share even as the Shiv Sena struggled to expand its base. Uddhav perhaps knew that playing second fiddle to the BJP would have further eroded the base of his party.


The BJP, which had won almost double the seats of Shiv Sena, was clearly in no mood to oblige. Devendra Fadnavis, who had led the BJP campaign, was adamant not to allow Shiv Sena to lead the coalition, even on a rotational basis.


So, what has changed now for the BJP to reverse its stand and play second fiddle despite the party having more than double MLAs than the rebel Sena camp?

One of the possible reasons for this “masterstroke” could be perhaps to do with the inner turmoil in the Shiv Sena triggered by rebel leader and now the state’s chief minister Eknath Shinde.

After dislodging the Uddhav-led MVA government, Shinde would now be eager to take control of the party. His elevation as the chief minister will help him woo the Shiv Sainiks at all levels and wrest control of the party.

This would make it all the more difficult for Uddhav Thackeray and his son Aditya to rebuild the party after the massive rebellion that has left them with just 13 odd MLAs out of 55.

A resurgent Shinde means Uddhav will have to first focus on saving his party than focussing on taking on the BJP in the state.

For the BJP, a Shiv Sena without the Thackerays will be a lot more easier to handle and also defeat if needed in future.

Moreover, the BJP would not have wanted to contest the next assembly elections and also the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with the mahagathbandhan of the Shiv Sena, the NCP and the Congress on one side.

Fadnavis from CM to deputy CM
The BJP has not just added to the headache of the Thackerays, it has also perhaps sent out a strong message to Devendra Fadnavis who is considered as the architect of the Sena rebellion and was the frontrunner to take over as chief minister with the help of Shinde camp.

Fadnavis had played a key role in the recent surprise victories of the BJP in Rajya Sabha elections and also the MLC polls in the state. The cross-voting that helped BJP win extra seats was largely attributed to meticulous planning by the former chief minister.

So, when the rebellion in Shiv Sena played out, the focus was on Fadnavis, who was believed to be pulling the strings from behind the scene.

When Uddhav resigned on Wednesday night, almost everyone believed Fadnavis was just a step away from the chair. But as things turned out, that one last step remained elusive for him as the BJP decided to install Shinde at the top post.

Accepting the turn of fate, the former chief minister announced that he would not join the Shinde government but support it from outside.

However, within hours he was made to reconsider his decision and agreed to be Shinde’s deputy in the new government.

BJP’s image makeover?
The BJP’s move to prop up rebel Sena leader Eknath Shinde will also help it fight the image of a power-hungry party that subsumes its allies.

Maharashtra will be the second state after Bihar where the BJP is playing second fiddle to a regional ally despite being the senior partner in terms of seats and vote share.

For a party that is accused by the opposition of playing big brother to regional outfits, these two sacrifices will help silence this criticism.

Clearly, the BJP may have sacrificed now, but it will hope to make big gains in the future. The only concern possibly would be Fadnavis who may not be the happiest person playing second fiddle to a breakaway Sena leader.

However, his demotion may be a short term sacrifice. Fadnavis may be back in the saddle after 2024 when the BJP would hope to emerge as a clear winner in the state.