Bihar polls: Opinion poll predicts close victory for NDA; Tejashwi Yadav most preferred CM face

NEW DELHI: Janata Dal (United) led- National Democratic Alliance in Bihar is set to retain power in the upcoming assembly elections, an opinion poll by JVC Poll predicted on Saturday.

According to the survey report, the NDA is projected to secure 120 to 140 seats in the 243-member Bihar assembly, while the MGB could win 93 to 112 seats.



Meanwhile, BJP is expected to be largest party in the assembly with 70 to 81 seats. The survey also predicted that JD(U) may win 42 to 48, LJP (RV) 5 to 7, HAM(S) 2, and RLM 1 to 2.

Within Mahahathbandhan, RJD could get 69 to 78, Congress 9 to 17, CPI(ML) 12 to 14, CPI 1, and CPM 1 to 2.

Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party might open its account with only one seat. Meanwhile, AIMIM, BSP, and others are likely to secure 8 to 10 seats.

Who tops the popularity chart?
According to the JVC Poll survey, Tejashwi Yadav is the most preferred face for the chief ministerial post with 33 per cent support. Nitish Kumar finished second with 29 per cent and Chirag Paswan and Prashant Kishor at third with 10 per cent each.

Additionally, Bihar deputy chief minister Samrat Chaudhary trails with 9 per cent and only 4 per cent preferred another face from the BJP. 5 per cent opted for someone else from the Mahagathbandhan.

Also read: Bihar polls: RJD’s Khesari Yadav defends ‘Jungle Raj’; BJP says Mahagathbandhan’s true face exposed

Vote share

According to the opinion poll, the NDA is predicted to get 41 per cent to 43 per cent, while the MGB is close behind with 39 per cent to 41 per cent. The Jan Suraaj Party could attract 6 per cent to 7 per cent, and other smaller parties may secure 10 per cent to 11 per cent.

The Election Commission has announced the schedule for the Bihar Assembly elections. The 243 assembly seats will go to the polls in two phases on November 6 and November 11, with the counting of votes scheduled to take place on November 14.

The total number of electors in the final list stands at 7.42 crore, while there were 7.89 crore electors as of June 24 this year. An Election Commission press release stated that 65 lakh voters were removed from the draft list, and the number of electors in the draft list as of August 1, 2025, stood at 7.24 crore.

In the 2020 assembly election, the BJP contested 110 seats and won 74, securing 19.8% of the vote share. The Janata Dal (United) contested 115 seats and won 43, with a 15.7% vote share. The Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) contested seven seats, winning four, and achieved 0.9% of the vote share.
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