Bihar Elections 2025: Why Chirag Paswan is already a winner - even before first vote is cast

NEW DELHI: When Ram Vilas Paswan, Bihar's legendary political "weatherman," passed away in 2020, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) seemed at a crossroads. His son, Chirag Paswan, stepped in to lead the party, inheriting both the mantle and the expectations of a Dalit political legacy.

Since taking over, Chirag has sought to modernise the party’s image, balance traditional constituency support, and stake a claim in the larger NDA alliance. His induction into the Union cabinet added national credibility and signalled his clout within the NDA. Now, he faces another test, the 2025 Bihar assembly elections — a test of both his leadership and political strategy.


However, even before November 14, when votes are counted, Chirag has already emerged as a winner in terms of influence and positioning within the NDA alliance.



The seat-sharing surprise
Chirag’s negotiation skills were on full display during NDA seat-sharing talks. Engaging in multiple rounds of discussions with senior BJP and JD(U) leaders, Chirag held firm on his demands until favourable terms were agreed upon.

As a result, LJP(RV) secured 29 seats, making it the largest junior ally in the NDA. As BJP and JD(U) settled for 101 seats each, other smaller allies, Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM and Upendra Kushwaha's RLM, were allotted only six seats each.

This elevated seat share signals Chirag's rising clout in Bihar politics and marks him as a key player in post-election arithmetic, irrespective of the NDA’s overall performance.

The bargaining power
Chirag Paswan's electoral performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls strengthened his bargaining position. LJP(RV) contested five seats in Bihar and won all five, registering a 100% success rate. The party also secured a nearly 6% statewide vote share, demonstrating that Chirag can mobilise voters beyond the party’s traditional Paswan-Dalit base.

In previous assembly elections, LJP(RV) had a mixed record, but the Lok Sabha sweep has cemented Chirag’s reputation as a vote-getter. This electoral credit seems to have not only boosted his confidence during alliance talks but also forced larger NDA partners to accommodate his demands on both the number and strategic importance of constituencies.



The kingmaker potential
The BJP is probably looking at Chirag not merely as a junior partner but also as a strategic asset. With chief minister Nitish Kumar seeking a 10th term, the 29 LJP(RV) seats could prove pivotal in government formation.

Chirag's willingness to challenge, renegotiate, or even realign his party at short notice adds another layer of influence. Political insiders suggest that the LJP(RV) leader could emerge as a kingmaker, shaping both cabinet formation and NDA’s legislative strategy post-elections.

Beyond caste politics - the youth factor
Chirag is working to transform the party’s image, positioning LJP(RV) as a pan-Bihar force rather than a purely caste-based outfit. His "Bihar First, Bihari First" campaign is emphasising on development, youth employment and governance reform.

The strategy resonated with first-time voters and women, especially in urban and semi-urban pockets, who have traditionally been ambivalent about caste-based politics. If this outreach succeeds, Chirag could translate his traditional base into a broader mandate, enhancing his bargaining power in future coalition politics.

With more seats than any other smaller ally, a proven track record in the Lok Sabha, negotiation leverage, kingmaker potential, and a growing voter base beyond his traditional Paswan constituency, Chirag Paswan enters the 2025 Bihar assembly elections as the biggest NDA gainer.


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